326
FXUS65 KMSO 052024
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
224 PM MDT MON MAY 5 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- RAW BACKCOUNTRY CONDITIONS, SLUSHY SOUTHWEST MONTANA WITH THE
WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE EVENING, THEN BACK TO SUMMER- LIKE
CONDITIONS THEREAFTER
- SLIGHTLY COOLER, A FEW SHOWERS AND BREEZY FOR THURSDAY
- FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY POTENTIALLY WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE
YEAR CAUSING INCREASE RIVER/STREAM FLOWS. THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN IDAHO
WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTHWEST
MONTANA AND LEMHI COUNTY. THE HIGHER TERRAIN (ABOVE 6000FT) AROUND
THE BUTTE/ANACONDA AREA ALONG WITH LEMHI COUNTY WILL EXPERIENCE
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES FALLING BY
MIDNIGHT. THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT CAUSING THE
PRECIPITATION TO STEADILY DIMINISH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY CAUSING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE KNOCKS DOWN THE RIDGE ON THURSDAY CAUSING THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
A FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES, BUT THE BIGGEST IMPACT WILL
BE THE BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ACROSS NORTHWEST
MONTANA.
THE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY REBOUND OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY CAUSING THE TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO POTENTIALLY THE
HIGHEST READINGS SO FAR THIS SEASON. THESE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CAUSE AN INCREASE IN THE MELTING OF THE REMAINING SNOW IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ALLOWING FOR SIGNIFICANT RISES IN RIVERS AND
STREAMS. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
CENTRAL IDAHO INTO WESTERN MONTANA.
ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL CAUSE COOLER AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION.
AVIATION...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUE TO CAUSE WRAP AROUND
PRECIPITATION INTO LEMHI COUNTY AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. KBTM WILL
CONTINUE TO DEAL WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY FROM SNOW UNTIL 06/02Z
THEN THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD TRANSITION TO VICINITY SHOWERS
AFTERWARDS. KHRF AND KSMN WILL HAVE VICINITY SHOWERS WITH AN
OCCASIONAL SHOWER THAT REDUCES VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS DOWN TO
MVFR FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME UNTIL ABOUT 06/03Z. SKIES WILL BE
CLEARING OVER KGPI. CONDITIONS WILL BE STEADILY IMPROVING AT KMSO
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A VICINITY FOG BY 06/10Z.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
BUTTE/BLACKFOOT REGION.
ID...NONE.
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