756
FXUS65 KMSO 060702
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
102 AM MDT TUE MAY 6 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY
- SLIGHTLY COOLER, A FEW SHOWERS AND BREEZY FOR THURSDAY
- FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY LIKELY WARMEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS
YEAR, CAUSING SIGNIFICANT INCREASE RIVER/STREAM FLOWS
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS,
POTENTIALLY A FEW STRONG STORMS.
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING IN SOUTHERN LEMHI COUNTY.
OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS IN TODAY LASTING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. EAST
WINDS TODAY WILL BE GUSTY TO 25 MPH AT TIMES, LIGHTER ON
WEDNESDAY.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE KNOCKS DOWN THE RIDGE ON THURSDAY CAUSING THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
A FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES, BUT THE BIGGEST IMPACT WILL
BE THE BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ACROSS NORTHWEST
MONTANA.
RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LIKELY BRINGING THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS YEAR BY SATURDAY. IN FACT, THERE
IS A 40% PROBABILITY OF REACHING 90F IN MISSOULA, 50-70%
PROBABILITY OF 90F FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL
IDAHO. STREAM AND RIVER FLOWS WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE
ACCELERATED SNOWMELT.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOONS AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. CURRENT PROJECTED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROFILES ALONG
WITH HIGH CLOUD BASES ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WIND CONCERNS.
NEARLY ALL ENSEMBLE MODELS (ABOUT 90%) SHOW A LARGE SCALE TROUGH
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK (MAY 12-14) WITH A
RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN TODAY AND WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING FOR VFR CONDITIONS. ONE EXCEPTION THIS MORNING WILL BE
SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND LEMHI COUNTY WHERE MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE
A CONCERN. EASTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP MID TO LATE MORNING WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KTS THROUGH OUT TODAY, DIMINISH BY SUNSET.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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