859
FXUS65 KMSO 070657
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
1257 AM MDT WED MAY 7 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- SLIGHTLY COOLER, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWEST MT AND
BREEZY ALL LOCATIONS FOR THURSDAY
- FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WARMEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS YEAR,
CAUSING SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN RIVER/STREAM FLOWS
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS,
POTENTIALLY A FEW STRONG STORMS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING CONTINUES TODAY WITH WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE KNOCKS DOWN THE RIDGE ON THURSDAY CAUSING THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
A FEW SHOWERS TO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES, BUT THE BIGGEST IMPACT WILL
BE THE BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ACROSS NORTHWEST
MONTANA. BY LATE AFTERNOON, THE AXIS OF SHOWERS WILL BE OVER THE
ANACONDA MOUNTAINS AND NEAR BUTTE, AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL
BE POSSIBLE. ANY SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DURING THE
AFTERNOON WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS OF 30
TO 40 MPH.
RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LIKELY BRINGING THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS YEAR. HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOW
TO UPPER 80S IN WESTERN MONTANA VALLEYS, UPPER 80S TO MID 90S FOR
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO. STREAM AND RIVER FLOWS
WILL RISE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE ACCELERATED SNOWMELT.
WATCH FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS
AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL OF A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WIND CONCERNS.
NEARLY ALL ENSEMBLE MODELS (ABOUT 90%) CONTINUE TO SHOW A LARGE
SCALE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK (MAY
12-14) WITH A RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERY
CONDITIONS. GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR, CLOSED LOWS ARE COMMON IN THIS
PATTERN, WHICH WOULD BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION, STAY TUNED!
AVIATION: VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TODAY AS WEAK RIDGING
REMAINS IN PLACE. WINDS TURN SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS FOR TERMINAL SITES. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTH-
CENTRAL IDAHO AND NORTHWEST MONTANA.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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