131
FXUS65 KMSO 260934
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
334 AM MDT MON MAY 26 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS TODAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
- SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
- HOT AND DRY FOR THE WEEKEND EXPECTED
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON AND
OREGON ALONG THE IDAHO BORDER THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY
PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO AND NORTHWEST MONTANA. THIS
AFTERNOON THE ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BECOME FAIRLY UNSTABLE ACROSS
LEMHI COUNTY INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS
INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM HAMILTON TO
MACDONALD PASS. STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN, WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL. THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES REMAIN UNDER WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS, BUT STORMS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS COMPARED TO MONDAY'S
POTENTIAL.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO SPIKE TO POTENTIALLY THE WARMEST
READINGS OF THE SEASON. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A 60% TO 90% CHANCE
FOR THE VALLEYS OF NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO, MISSION VALLEY AND
MISSOULA/BITTERROOT VALLEYS TO HIT 90 DEGREES ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE
LATE THURSDAY WHICH WILL HELP WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES. THIS
FEATURE COULD ALSO CAUSE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA, ESPECIALLY FROM NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO INTO
NORTHWEST MONTANA.
THE RIDGE REBOUNDS AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND BRINGING HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ALL THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A
WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY,
POTENTIALLY BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.
AVIATION
CLEAR SKIES AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING. RIDGETOP WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS OUT OF
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ALONG WITH MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INTO THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BETWEEN 26/1900Z AND
27/0300Z ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA INCLUDING KBTM, KSMN WITH A SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCE FOR KHRF.
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL, SMALL HAIL, AND VARIABLE GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH NEARBY STRONGER SHOWERS OR STORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT
AS LIKELY, THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE THAT THESE SHOWERS AND
STORMS COULD EXTEND NORTHWARD INTO THE VICINITY OF KMSO. WIDELY SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE
ACROSS NORTHWEST MONTANA AND NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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