069
FXUS65 KMSO 271003
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
403 AM MDT TUE MAY 27 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- WARMING AND DRYING TREND TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY
- ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY CAUSING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS
- STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND CAUSING HOT AND
DRY CONDITIONS
- LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE NEXT WEEK BRING COOLER AND WET
WEATHER
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY CAUSING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. THEN
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES SPIKE AHEAD OF ITS
PASSAGE, SO MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS SHOULD EXPERIENCE TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S. THIS FRONT WILL CAUSE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ACROSS NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST
MONTANA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES FRIDAY INTO WEEKEND. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING AROUND AN 70%
TO 90% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES BREAKING INTO THE 90S ON
SATURDAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO INTO WEST CENTRAL MONTANA.
MISSOULA IS EXPECTED TO HIT 90 DEGREES SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH
WILL BE NEAR RECORD READINGS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
ALL THE MODEL CLUSTERS ARE INDICATING THAT A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES BY THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO COOL TO NEAR TO
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. THIS
SYSTEM COULD EVEN BRING SOME SNOW TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
AVIATION
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL IDAHO INTO WEST CENTRAL MONTANA THIS MORNING, THEN
DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WHILE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE
STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT ALL THE TERMINALS WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A FEW GUSTS
UP TO 20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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