668
FXUS65 KMSO 272010
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
210 PM MDT TUE MAY 27 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- HOT AND DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
- WEAK FRONT TO BRING BREEZY WINDS AND A CHANCE FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
- 90% CHANCE FOR PATTERN CHANGE TO COOLER/WETTER BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHERN LEMHI COUNTY INTO
SOUTHERN RAVALLI COUNTY, THERE COULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO HELP
FIRE OFF A FEW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE
SOUTHERN BITTERROOT MOUNTAINS.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. NORTHWEST MONTANA WILL SEE THE
HIGHER WESTERLY WIND GUSTS, GENERALLY 20 TO 30 MPH. LIGHTNING,
HEAVY RAIN, GUSTY WINDS OVER 25 MPH, AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STORMS. THE AREA THAT HAS THE HIGHER PROBABILITY(25%)
FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BITTERROOT
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA.
IT'S RELATIVELY RARE FOR THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO GET TO 90 DEGREES
IN LATE MAY. LOOKING AT MISSOULA CLIMATOLOGY, THERE WERE 11 DAYS
BETWEEN MAY 20-31 THAT HIT 90 OR GREATER SINCE 1949. THERE IS A 96
PERCENT CHANCE TO REACH 90 DEGREES THIS SATURDAY. FOR THE LOWER
VALLEYS OF NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO, TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL INTO THE
90S. THERE IS A 93 PERCENT CHANCE FOR THE HELLS CANYON REGION TO
BE GREATER THAN 97 DEGREES ON SATURDAY.
AT LEAST 90 PERCENT OF THE ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS DEPICT A TROUGH
PATTERN DEVELOPING BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
BRING AN END TO THE SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER. LOOKING AT A 2-DAY TOTAL
PRECIPITATION ENDING WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE NBM SHOWS WIDESPREAD
0.25" TO 0.50" OF PRECIPITATION WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS (OVER AN INCH)
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA. THE PLACES THAT IT
SHOWS LOWER AMOUNTS INCLUDE NORTHWEST MONTANA AND TOWARDS
GRANGEVILLE AND POINTS SOUTH. IN THESE AREAS, THE PROBABILITY FOR
A WETTING RAIN (GREATER THAN 0.09"), RANGES FROM 60 TO 70 PERCENT.
AVIATION
THE WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT
ALL THE TERMINALS WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS GETTING INTO THE 80S. BY
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY, HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 90S FOR MANY
LOCATIONS. PLAN ON INCREASED DENSITY ALTITUDE DURING THIS PERIOD.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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