355
FXUS65 KMSO 281005
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
405 AM MDT WED MAY 28 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- HOT AND DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
- WEAK FRONT ON THURSDAY CAUSING BREEZY WINDS AND SCATTERED
CONVECTION
- COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY A THUNDERSTORM IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN LEMHI COUNTY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES ON THURSDAY CAUSING AN INCREASE IN WESTERLY WINDS AND
SCATTERED CONVECTION. THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE THAT
STRETCHES FROM LOWELL IDAHO UP TO SEELEY LAKE MONTANA. THE
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAIN, SMALL HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SPIKE JUST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT ESPECIALLY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
MONTANA.
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REBOUNDS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION ON SATURDAY
ALLOWING FOR BETTER MIXING. THIS EXTRA MIXING APPEARS TO ALLOW
SATURDAY TO BE THE WARMEST DAY EXPERIENCED SO FAR THIS SEASON WITH
MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS HAVING AFTERNOON READINGS IN THE MID 80S TO
MID 90S. THE MISSOULA AIRPORT CURRENTLY HAS AN 85% CHANCE OF
REACHING 90 DEGREES AND A 51% CHANCE OF HITTING 93 WHICH WOULD
BREAK THE DAILY RECORD.
A COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES NEXT WEEK. THE PATH OF THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS STILL UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME, BUT ITS PROGRESSION WILL DETERMINE THE AMOUNT AND
PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE REGION
SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
PERIODS OF RAIN WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW.
AVIATION
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY CAUSING FAIR FLYING CONDITIONS.
SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE STREAMING OVER THE REGION, BUT
SHOULD HAVE NO IMPACT TO REGIONAL TERMINALS.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page