771
FXUS65 KMSO 281956
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
156 PM MDT WED MAY 28 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- HOT AND DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES APPROACHING
RECORDS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ON SATURDAY.
- BREEZY TOMORROW WITH AFTERNOON/ EVENING THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE
OF GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.
- COOLER AND WET CONDITIONS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY, PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH WESTERN
MONTANA AND NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS. INCREASED LIFT WITH THE FRONT WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS, PARTICULARLY FOCUSED ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 93.
DUE TO THE DRY NATURE OF THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE, STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS, LOCALLY EXCEEDING 50 MPH. SMALL
HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE FRONT WILL
ALSO BRING BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE
COMBINATION OF THUNDERSTORMS AND WIND MAY CREATE DIFFICULT
CONDITIONS ON FLATHEAD LAKE FOR SMALL WATER CRAFT. A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY MAY BECOME NECESSARY AND WILL BE EVALUATED ON FUTURE
SHIFTS.
THE BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY RE-AMPLIFIES OVER THE REGION FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE, WITH SATURDAY LIKELY BEING THE WARMEST
DAY OF THE YEAR THUS FAR. IN FACT, MANY LOCATIONS WILL APPROACH
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (LOW TO MID 90S).
SEEING THAT NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE
AROUND 70 DEGREES, THIS WILL BE A NOTICEABLE THOUGH SHORT-LIVED
HEATWAVE. IF YOU HAVE STRENUOUS OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES PLANNED,
CONSIDER MOVING THEM TO EARLIER IN THE DAY. ALSO, KEEP IN MIND
THAT AREA STREAMS AND CREEKS CONTINUE TO RUN SWIFT AND COLD. DON'T
UNDERESTIMATE THE HYPOTHERMIA THREAT IF YOU PLAN TO RECREATE ON
THE WATER THIS WEEKEND.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY,
BRINGING BREEZY WINDS AND A SLIGHT COOL-DOWN IN TEMPERATURES FOR
SUNDAY. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE WITH A HIGH
PROBABILITY (90 PLUS PERCENT CHANCE) THAT A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS. THERE ARE STILL
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE TRACK OF THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM, WHICH WILL GREATLY VARY THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION OUT OF
THIS SYSTEM. SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY LOOKS MOST
LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
NORTHWEST MONTANA HAS THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME IN
TERMS OF PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, AS A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK WITH THE
LOW WILL LIKELY MEAN LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION. STAY TUNED!
AVIATION
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH TONIGHT CAUSING FAIR FLYING
CONDITIONS. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN IDAHO COUNTY AND LEMHI
COUNTY, MAINLY FOCUSED OVER THE TERRAIN. THE GRADIENT WILL
STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING, BRINGING INCREASED EASTERLY WINDS ALONG
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND TO KMSO AND KBTM, MAINLY BETWEEN
29/0000Z AND 29/0600Z.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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