663
FXUS65 KMSO 011927
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
127 PM MDT TUE JUL 1 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- THUNDERSTORMS IN LEMHI COUNTY & SOUTHWEST MONTANA WITH GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS TODAY
- THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS
THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THUNDERSTORMS
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN LEMHI COUNTY AND ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH SOUTHWEST MONTANA THIS EVENING. WITH HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS IN PLACE, HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW A RISK FOR GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS OF 35-45 MPH WITH MOST STORMS, AND UP TO 60 MPH WITH
STRONGER CELLS. THE THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS SHOULD DECREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 8 PM.
WEDNESDAY REMAINS ON TRACK TO BE ANOTHER HOT DAY, WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY FROM NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
MONTANA. SOME STORMS COULD ORGANIZE INTO CLUSTERS DUE TO MODERATE
WINDS ALOFT, HELPING THEM LAST LONGER. THE HOT, DRY CONDITIONS
WILL SUPPORT A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED SEVERE
WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. MOST HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW STORMS
REACHING THE MISSOULA AND BITTERROOT VALLEYS, THEN SPREADING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH BUTTE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE, INSTABILITY, AND WIND SHEAR FOR A RISK
OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THAT COULD IMPACT OUTDOOR EVENTS.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND, A TROUGH WILL
LINGER OVER THE REGION, BRINGING A DAILY CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS PATTERN COULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STRONG STORMS. SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90, STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL, WHICH COULD
AFFECT RECENT BURN SCARS. ONE AREA OF CONCERN IS THE DALY FIRE
SCAR NEAR SKALKAHO SUMMIT. IF YOU’RE TRAVELING IN THAT AREA AND
HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPS, BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE DEBRIS FLOWS OR RUNOFF
NEAR SKALKAHO CREEK AND THE FALLS.
AVIATION
THUNDERSTORMS IN LEMHI COUNTY WILL TRACK INTO
SOUTHWEST MONTANA THIS EVENING, BRINGING OUTFLOW WINDS OF 35-45
MPH, WITH ISOLATED GUSTS TO 60 MPH. EXPECT SHIFTING WINDS AND
TURBULENCE NEAR STORMS. THE WIND THREAT SHOULD DROP OFF AFTER 8
PM.
WEDNESDAY STAYS HOT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO INTO WESTERN MONTANA. SOME
STORMS MAY ORGANIZE AND PRODUCE STRONG, GUSTY WINDS, TURBULENCE,
AND HAIL, ESPECIALLY FROM MISSOULA AND THE BITTERROOT SOUTHEAST
THROUGH BUTTE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR LOWER HELLS
CANYON/SALMON RIVER REGION...OROFINO/GRANGEVILLE REGION.
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