903
FXUS65 KMSO 030825
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
225 AM MDT THU JUL 3 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
- A WARMING TREND STARTS EARLY THIS WEEK THAT WILL CULMINATE IN
ANOTHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF HOT, DRY WEATHER.
A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN. FOR FRIDAY, THE FOCUS WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN
BITTERROOT AND ALL OF THE SAPPHIRE MOUNTAINS AND AREAS EASTWARD TO
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. HEAVY RAIN WITH THESE STORMS IS A CONCERN
FOR THE DALY FIRE BURN SCAR FROM LAST YEAR AS IT MAY CAUSE HEAVY
RUN-OFF OR DEBRIS FLOWS, SO BE CAUTIOUS IF TRAVELING OVER SKALKAHO
SUMMIT THIS WEEKEND. FOR SATURDAY, ENSEMBLES HAVE RECENTLY TRENDED
STRONGER AND ARE SHOWING A HIGH LIKELIHOOD FOR HEAVY RAIN OVER
GLACIER NATIONAL PARK AND THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. THIS AREA IS VERY STEEP AND ROCKY, AND MUCH OF IT IS PRONE
TO FLASH FLOODING WITH HEAVY RAIN IN THE SUMMER. SO AGAIN, USE
CAUTION IF YOU PLAN TO BE IN GLACIER NATIONAL PARK THIS WEEKEND.
STARTING MONDAY TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE AVERAGE AND TREND
WARMER DAILY. AN EXTENDED HOT, DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST THE END OF NEXT WEEK. MOST ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING IT LASTING
UNTIL MID-MONTH.
AVIATION
A TROUGH OVER THE REGION WILL CAUSE DAILY
THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS. FOR THURSDAY, THE MAIN TERMINALS
IMPACTED WILL BE KSMN AND KBTM. BUT FRIDAY AND THIS WEEKEND THE
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION CAUSING INTERMITTENT
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND HEAVY RAIN.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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