406
FXUS65 KMSO 040807
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
207 AM MDT FRI JUL 4 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN
CONTINUE TODAY.
- A WARMING TREND STARTS EARLY THIS WEEK THAT WILL CULMINATE IN
ANOTHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF HOT, DRY WEATHER.
A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES TODAY INTO SATURDAY. A PLUME OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE SOUTH TO THE
NORTH DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. A SECOND PULSE
OF CONVECTION WITH EVEN STRONGER STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER LEMHI COUNTY INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA.
THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG,
ERRATIC WINDS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. THE HEAVY RAIN COULD
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS ESPECIALLY OVER FLOOD PRONE
BASINS AND RECENT BURN SCARS.
AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY, WRAP AROUND
PRECIPITATION WILL AFFECT AREAS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
ESPECIALLY AROUND GLACIER NATIONAL PARK. WHILE THE REMAINDER OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EXPERIENCE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AS AFTERNOON READINGS APPEAR TO BE AROUND 5
DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK CAUSING A WARMING AND
DRYING TREND. TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN APPEAR TO WARM TO AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY.
THE EXTENDED MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK DISTURBANCE FLATTENING THE
RIDGE BY THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
THIS DISTURBANCE IS STILL UNCERTAIN, BUT EXPECT SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED WESTERLY WINDS. THIS DISTURBANCE COULD
ALSO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES.
AVIATION
A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY INTO SATURDAY. A PLUME OF SHOWERS ALONG
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE SOUTH TO
THE NORTH DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. A SECOND
PULSE OF CONVECTION WITH EVEN STRONGER STORMS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER LEMHI COUNTY INTO SOUTHWEST
MONTANA. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND
OF STRONG, ERRATIC WINDS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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