202
FXUS65 KMSO 050754
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
154 AM MDT SAT JUL 5 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
- A WARMING TREND STARTS EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT WILL CULMINATE IN
ANOTHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF HOT, DRY WEATHER.
A TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION OVER THE REGION WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD BELOW-AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY, ABOUT 10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN NORMAL. WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS NORTHWEST MONTANA WILL
SHIFT TO OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MOST OF NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA BY THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RETURN SUNDAY, BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK
TO NEAR-NORMAL LEVELS. MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN STORM-FREE,
THOUGH SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY CLIP
NORTHWEST MONTANA, POTENTIALLY PRODUCING SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY
AROUND GLACIER NATIONAL PARK.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD EARLY NEXT WEEK, LEADING TO
A WARMING TREND AND HOT TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY.
EXTENDED MODELS SHOW A WEAK DISTURBANCE FLATTENING THE RIDGE LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. WHILE TIMING AND
STRENGTH REMAIN UNCERTAIN, THIS FEATURE MAY BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER,
BUT STILL ABOVE-NORMAL, TEMPERATURES, INCREASED WESTERLY WINDS,
AND A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RETURN TO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
AVIATION
PATCHY MORNING FOG IN VALLEYS MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY
AT SOME AIRFIELDS DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL. A TROUGH AND LOW
PRESSURE CIRCULATION WILL KEEP CONDITIONS COOL TODAY, WITH HIGHS
ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WIDESPREAD RAIN IN NORTHWEST
MONTANA WILL OBSCURE TERRAIN THROUGH THIS MORNING, BEFORE TAPERING
TO OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA. SHOWERS SHOULD END
QUICKLY BY THIS EVENING. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS AND A RETURN TO NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. EXPECT IMPROVING FLIGHT CONDITIONS BY LATE EVENING,
WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING STORM-FREE THROUGH SUNDAY, EXCEPT FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR GLACIER NATIONAL PARK.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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