939
FXUS65 KMSO 061907
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
107 PM MDT SUN JUL 6 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- HOT AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEK.
- A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE HOT TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY,
AS A WEAK COLD FRONT INCREASES WIND AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
A DEPARTING TROUGH ALONG THE MONTANA/CANADIAN BORDER WILL BRING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 93 IN
FLATHEAD COUNTY AND ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, EXTENDING SOUTH
TO POWELL COUNTY. ELSEWHERE, SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, BRINGING A WARMING TREND AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON
OVER LEMHI COUNTY AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA, WHERE LINGERING MOISTURE
AND MODEST INSTABILITY REMAIN IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN
ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WITH TUESDAY LIKELY BEING THE HOTTEST DAY. THERE IS
MORE THAN A 90 PERCENT PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURES WILL EXCEED
100 DEGREES IN AREAS AROUND RIGGINS AND HIGHWAY 95 FROM KOOSKIA TO
OROFINO, IDAHO, ON TUESDAY. THE VALLEYS OF WESTERN MONTANA ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
ENSEMBLES AGREE ON A DISTURBANCE FLATTENING THE RIDGE LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS BY THURSDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES,
ALONG WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS, WILL ALSO RETURN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE DIVIDE AND THE
CANADIAN BORDER. THERE IS A 70 TO 90 PERCENT PROBABILITY THAT
GUSTS WILL REACH OR EXCEED 30 MPH IN THE VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS
NORTH OF I-90 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOT AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE BUMPS BACK UP. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW OPEN UP THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN
THIS PATTERN.
AVIATION
SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY IN NORTHWESTERN MONTANA
DECREASING IN COVERAGE BY 06/2400Z. BRIEF TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR AND NORTH OF GPI. RIDGETOP WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE
WEST AT 7-15 KNOTS. PEAK WIND GUSTS AT MOST TERMINALS WILL REACH
UP TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. CONTINUED DRYING INTO
MONDAY WITH LESSER CHANCES FOR ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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