794
FXUS65 KMSO 070927
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
327 AM MDT MON JUL 7 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- HOT AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEK.
- COOLER, SHOWERY AND BREEZY BY THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE REGION TODAY AND
TUESDAY BRINGING A WARMING TREND TO THE REGION. TUESDAY WILL SEE
THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK, APPROACHING LOW 90S IN
WESTERN MONTANA VALLEYS AND LOW 100S FOR THE LOWER VALLEYS OF
CENTRAL IDAHO. THIS IS ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.WHILE MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY, THERE IS A THREAT
FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND LEMHI COUNTY. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGIN TO BREAK
DOWN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP, AND COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS, MAY ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, PARTICULARLY
THROUGH THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO. AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER, AS WELL AS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MONTANA.
BY THURSDAY, COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION. WIDESPREAD WESTERLY WINDS UP TO 30 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST MONTANA. RECENT FORECAST MODELS HAVE
BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS A DEEPER TROUGH, WHICH IS PRODUCING MORE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS STILL A WIDE SPREAD IN
POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, BUT RECENT GUIDANCE IS NOW
SHOWING A ROUGHLY 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF 0.25" OR GREATER ACROSS
NORTHWEST MONTANA.
HIGH PRESSURE AND WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RETURN BY THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING IN VALLEYS OF
NORTHWEST MONTANA. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE SHORT LIVED. BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
OVER WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO FOR THE REST OF THE
DAY.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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