730
FXUS65 KMSO 081826
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
1226 PM MDT TUE JUL 8 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- ISOLATED GUSTY OUTFLOWS WITH STORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN LEMHI
COUNTY AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA
- THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY IN NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO AND SOUTHWEST
MONTANA ON WEDNESDAY
- COOLER, SHOWERY AND BREEZY THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY IN NW MONTANA
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING AS MOISTURE
INCREASES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. STORMS WILL MAINLY AFFECT IDAHO
COUNTY, LEMHI COUNTY, AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA, WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
LIGHTNING AS THE MAIN THREATS. HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW GUSTS
UP TO 50 MPH.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT, WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, MAINLY BRINGING LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY WINDS.
MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. BREEZY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AND
COMBINED WITH HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS, WILL INCREASE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY IN NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO.
COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AS A TROUGH DROPS OUT OF
CANADA INTO NORTHWEST MONTANA. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY IN WESTERN
MONTANA, WHILE NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO SHOULD STAY MOSTLY DRY. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAIN (0.10" OR MORE) IS IN NORTHWEST
MONTANA, WITH A 50–60% CHANCE. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY REGION-WIDE,
BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY SHOULD HELP LIMIT FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN BY THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
REBUILDS. LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK, MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER
TROUGH MAY DROP OUT OF CANADA BY MIDWEEK, BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND MORE SHOWERS. TIMING AND STRENGTH ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN, WITH ARRIVAL POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS LATE MONDAY OR AS
LATE AS WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING
AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. STORMS WILL MAINLY
AFFECT IDAHO COUNTY, LEMHI COUNTY, AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA, WITH
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UP TO 45 KTS POSSIBLE. WATCH
FOR SUDDEN WIND SHIFTS NEAR STORMS.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT, WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, MAINLY POSING LIGHTNING AND
WIND THREATS.
MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING, MAINLY FROM NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO INTO WESTERN
MONTANA. BREEZY SURFACE WINDS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE AGAIN THE MAIN CONCERN WITH
THUNDERSTORMS.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
PALOUSE/HELLS CANYON.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR LOWER HELLS
CANYON/SALMON RIVER REGION...OROFINO/GRANGEVILLE REGION.
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