377
FXUS65 KMSO 090931
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
331 AM MDT WED JUL 9 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 50 MPH TODAY
ACROSS LEMHI COUNTY AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA
- BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY, LEADING TO ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS
- COOLER, SHOWERY AND BREEZY ON THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST
MONTANA
A WAVE OF ENERGY PASSING THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO THIS MORNING
IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
AREAS WILL SHIFT INTO WESTERN MONTANA THROUGH SUNRISE. MAIN
THREATS WILL BE ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN MAINLY BE FOCUSED
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO, LEMHI COUNTY, AND INTO SOUTHWEST
MONTANA. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR
WINDS GUSTING UP TO 50 MPH LOCALLY WITH STORMS.
OTHERWISE, TODAY WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES COOLER, THOUGH STILL DRY
AND BREEZY. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED,
ESPECIALLY THROUGH PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO.
THURSDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES DROP 10 TO 15 DEGREES AS A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH OUT OF BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO
NORTHWEST MONTANA. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME
ACROSS NORTHWEST MONTANA, GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
PROBABILITY FOR A WETTING RAIN (0.10" OR MORE) IS HIGHEST NEAR
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. ALTHOUGH BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE, THE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY SHOULD LIMIT
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN BY THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
REBUILDS. LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK, MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER
TROUGH MAY DROP OUT OF CANADA BY MIDWEEK, BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND MORE SHOWERS. TIMING AND STRENGTH ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN, WITH ARRIVAL POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS LATE MONDAY OR AS
LATE AS WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY IN NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO WILL SPREAD INTO WESTERN MONTANA
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MAIN THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 25 KTS.
MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING, MAINLY FROM NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO INTO
SOUTHWEST MONTANA. OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE A CONCERN ONCE AGAIN,
POTENTIALLY REACHING UP TO 45 KTS. BREEZY SURFACE WINDS FROM THE
WEST TO NORTHWEST WILL DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH WIDESPREAD
GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KTS.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR PALOUSE/HELLS CANYON.
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