749
FXUS65 KMSO 031905
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
105 PM MDT SUN AUG 3 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- THE KMSX RADAR (MISSOULA, MT LOCAL WEATHER RADAR) WILL REMAIN
OFFLINE DUE TO SCHEDULED MAINTENANCE THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF
AUGUST
- A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY, PRODUCING STRONG WINDS,
HAIL, AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
- BRIEF WARM-UP MID WEEK, THEN COOLER WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL SPARK THUNDERSTORMS
IN TWO MAIN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FIRST AREA OF
STORMS WILL FIRE UP OVER NORTH- CENTRAL IDAHO AND LINGER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT THE SAME TIME, THE ATMOSPHERE OVER LEMHI
COUNTY, ID, AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA WILL BECOME UNSTABLE, PRODUCING
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL LAST INTO THIS EVENING.
MONDAY'S SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
THE MOST IMPACTFUL WEATHER ARRIVES ON MONDAY. AN APPROACHING
STORM SYSTEM WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEAT TO CREATE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1
OF 5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO AND
WESTERN MONTANA. THIS MEANS A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE, WITH
THE MAIN THREATS BEING:
- DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
- HAIL
- BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
FORECAST MODELS SHOW THE STORM SYSTEM CENTERING OVER NORTHWEST
MONTANA MONDAY NIGHT, MEANING THAT AREA COULD SEE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING AFTER DARK.
MID-WEEK WARM-UP (TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY)
A PLEASANT AND DRY BREAK ARRIVES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
EXPECT SUNSHINE TO RETURN FOR BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND, AND WEDNESDAY IS FORECAST TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH NEAR-NORMAL SUMMERTIME HIGHS.
COOLER, WETTER END TO THE WEEK (THURSDAY & FRIDAY)
CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT A STRONGER AND MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEGINNING THURSDAY. THIS WILL
BRING A RENEWED AND WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL CURRENTLY AIMED AT
NORTHWEST MONTANA. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO USHER IN A MUCH COOLER
AIRMASS, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY EXPECTED TO BE 10-15
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE, FEELING MORE LIKE EARLY FALL THAN THE PEAK
OF SUMMER.
AVIATION
SOME DRY AIR COMING INTO THE REGION TODAY WILL REDUCE
BUT NOT ELIMINATE THE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE COMMON THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSHOWERS INCREASES AFTER 03/2000Z. TERMINALS KSMN, KHRF,
AND KBTM ARE THE MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN LOWERED CEILINGS AND LOWERED VISIBILITY DUE
TO HEAVY RAIN. MONDAY CONVECTION MAY START EARLY ACROSS MOST
AREAS. ANTICIPATE GUSTY SURFACE WINDS, HEAVY RAIN, AND POTENTIAL
FOR HAIL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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