842
FXUS65 KMSO 060829
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
229 AM MDT WED AUG 6 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- THE KMSX RADAR (MISSOULA, MT LOCAL WEATHER RADAR) WILL REMAIN
OFFLINE DUE TO SCHEDULED MAINTENANCE THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF
AUGUST.
- A BREAK IN THE RAIN CONTINUES THROUGH TODAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY A COOL, SHOWERY END OF THE WEEK.
- A PATTERN CHANGE TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND A BUILDING RIDGE WILL
OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND.
DRIER AIR HAS SETTLED IN WITH BRIEF RIDGING THROUGH TODAY.
SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY IMPORTS MID LEVEL MOISTURE BUT WITH LIMITED
LIFT AND INSTABILITY, MOSTLY VIRGA IS EXPECTED. WESTERLY WINDS DO
PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT TONIGHT. SHOWERS
GRADUALLY INCREASE TONIGHT.
A WELL DEFINED CLOSED LOW WOBBLES THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
TOMORROW INTO FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. TOMORROW AFTERNOON, INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
PROFILES WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS CONTAINING GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS AND HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO A CONCERN BUT
DECENT STORM MOVEMENT SHOULD MINIMIZE ANY DEBRIS FLOW OR FLOODING
CONCERNS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO DROP TO ABOUT 15 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE. UNDER THE TRACK OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW, SNOW LEVELS
COULD FALL AS LOW AS 8000 FEET, PERHAPS LEAVING A FEW HIGHER
PEAKS WITH A DUSTING OF NEW SNOW BY FRIDAY MORNING.
RIDGING OFF THE WEST COAST LEADS TO NORTHWEST FLOW THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
TO RETURN TO SEASONABLY WARM LEVELS. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
FOR A FEW DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT OVERALL A DRY SETUP.
MORE TROUGHING OR SOUTHWEST FLOW IS LIKELY LATE NEXT WEEK AUGUST
14-15TH WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
CONTINUED RIDGING TODAY WILL KEEP CONVECTION DOWN,
BUT AN APPROACHING TROUGH WILL CAUSE INCREASING CLOUDS. SOME
SHOWERS WILL START OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS A CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED
TO BRING RAIN AND LOWER CEILINGS TOMORROW AND FRIDAY.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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