085
FXUS65 KMSO 070932
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
332 AM MDT THU AUG 7 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- THE KMSX RADAR (MISSOULA, MT LOCAL WEATHER RADAR) WILL REMAIN
OFFLINE DUE TO SCHEDULED MAINTENANCE THROUGH AUGUST 9TH
- COOLER AND SHOWERY TODAY, WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS ACROSS
WEST-CENTRAL MONTANA AND NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO
- A PATTERN CHANGE TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND A BUILDING RIDGE THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE IDAHO PANHANDLE TODAY, SLOWLY
PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA.
BECAUSE THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE DURING THE WARMEST PART OF THE DAY,
WE ARE EXPECTING SOME STRONGER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO INTO WEST-
CENTRAL MONTANA. THESE STORMS COULD BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL, SMALL HAIL, AND LIGHTNING. GUSTY WINDS AREN'T EXPECTED
TO BE A WIDESPREAD ISSUE, BUT A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS MIGHT
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. AT THE SAME TIME, WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST MONTANA. TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL STAY COOL, RUNNING ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
EARLY AUGUST.
BY FRIDAY, THE LOW WILL START TO MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, BUT
IT WILL STILL BRING WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE, ESPECIALLY TO NORTHWEST
MONTANA AND AREAS NEAR GLACIER NATIONAL PARK. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH RAIN WILL FALL ACROSS NORTHWEST MONTANA,
BUT MOST MODELS ARE TRENDING WETTER, SO WE'VE BUMPED UP RAIN
CHANCES NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. SNOW LEVELS COULD DROP TO
AROUND 8,000 FEET FRIDAY MORNING, WHICH MEANS A LIGHT DUSTING OF
SNOW ISN'T OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF
GLACIER. AND IF SKIES CLEAR OVERNIGHT, IT COULD GET QUITE
CHILLY. MANY HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS MAY DIP INTO THE 30S, WITH
PLACES LIKE DIXIE, IDAHO POSSIBLY SEEING LOWS IN THE 20S.
LOOKING AHEAD, THE WEATHER PATTERN SHIFTS TO A MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW,
EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONING TO WEAK RIDGING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT MEANS
WE'LL START TO WARM UP AND DRY OUT. BY SUNDAY OR MONDAY,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BACK NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SPREADING INTO NORTHWEST MONTANA THIS MORNING.
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE WITHIN THE VICINITY OF KGPI
BY 07/12Z. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO INTO WEST
CENTRAL MONTANA THIS EVENING. KMSO, KHRF AND KBTM COULD BE
IMPACTED BY THIS CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING, BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN, SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 KTS.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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