130
FXUS65 KMSO 072026
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
226 PM MDT THU AUG 7 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- THE KMSX RADAR (MISSOULA, MT LOCAL WEATHER RADAR) WILL REMAIN
OFFLINE DUE TO SCHEDULED MAINTENANCE THROUGH AUGUST 9TH
- HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. SOME
COULD BE SEVERE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO INTO SOUTHWEST
MONTANA. THERE COULD BE SOME SWOLLEN STREAMS TONIGHT.
- COLD AND WET IN THE BACKCOUNTRY.
- FLASH FLOODING RISK FOR RECENT BURN SCARS, 60 PERCENT CHANCE AT
THE DALY CREEK BURN SCAR ON SKALKAHO ROAD, JUST SOUTH OF THE
FALLS.
- BACK TO SUMMER-LIKE HEAT BY THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE STRONGEST LIFT CONNECTED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER EASTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO WILL TRACK
ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA BY THIS EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
CONTENT IS AROUND 0.75" WHICH AROUND 130 PERCENT OF AVERAGE. THIS
STRONG LIFT COMBINED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE, WILL
TRIGGER WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM IDAHO COUNTY INTO WESTERN MONTANA. OUR WEATHER
SPOTTER LOCATED A FEW MILES EAST OF KOOSKIA, IDAHO REPORTED TO US
THAT HE MEASURED 1.06" FROM TWO THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED THROUGH
ALREADY TODAY(ALONG WITH PLENTY OF LIGHTNING)! DUE TO THE THREAT
FOR HEAVY RAIN, WE HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE DALY
CREEK BURN SCAR LOCATED JUST WEST OF SKALKAHO PASS. THE WATCH IS
OUT UNTIL 8 PM.
LOOKING UPSTREAM AT THE QUILLAYUTE, WASHINGTON WEATHER BALLOON
SOUNDING FROM 6 AM MDT THIS MORNING, THE FREEZING LEVEL WAS PRETTY
LOW AROUND 7,000 FEET MSL. THIS CONTRIBUTES TO HOW UNSTABLE THIS
WEATHER SYSTEM IS. THE SYSTEM WILL MODERATE SOME, BUT IT'S NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE SNOW FALLING THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT DOWN TO 8,000 FEET! WITH THAT SAID, IT WILL BE VERY COLD
AND WET IN THE BACKCOUNTRY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, AND HYPOTHERMIA
COULD BE A REAL THREAT.
AS FAR AS WILL ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS BE ABLE TO GET SEVERE
TODAY. A FEW OF THE CONVECTION-ALLOWING-MODELS (CAMS) HAVE BEEN
DEPICTING STRONGER STORMS FORMING ACROSS IDAHO COUNTY AND
TRACKING EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN LEMHI/SOUTHERN RAVALLI
COUNTY TOWARDS BUTTE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THESE STORMS
COULD PRODUCE HAIL LARGER THAN 0.5", WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 50
MPH, PLENTY OF LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN.
AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO CENTRAL MONTANA BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT, WRAP-AROUND MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST-CETNRAL AND NORTHWEST MONTANA
OVERNIGHT. BY FRIDAY MORNING THERE COULD BE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.50" UP TO 1.50" FROM IDAHO COUNTY INTO WEST-
CENTRAL MONTANA! THERE IS A 80 PERCENT PROBABILITY THAT PORTIONS
OF FAR NORTHWEST MONTANA AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LEMHI COUNTY MAY
ONLY RECEIVE NOTHING UP TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS.
ON FRIDAY WE'LL BE UNDER CYCLONIC, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS IS A
GOOD PATTERN FOR SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS ACROSS
WESTERN MONTANA. THE MODELS DON'T DEPICT THAT MUCH INSTABILITY,
BUT WITH THE RECENT MOISTURE AND THE UPPER LEVELS STILL COOL
ENOUGH, COULDN'T RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
THE HEAT WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND AS HIGHS WILL GET BACK INTO THE
80S AND 90S, BUT LOW 100S BY MONDAY IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO. WITH A VERY STRONG UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC (+600 DECAMETERS), THIS WILL LEAVE
THE DOOR OPEN FOR WAVES DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF WESTERN CANADA BY
TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING UNSETTLED
WEATHER BACK INTO VIEW. THESE WAVES COULD HAVE A LITTLE BIT OF
SUBTROPICAL JUICINESS WITH THEM, SO CAN ONE SAY "RINSE AND REPEAT"
OF OUR RECENT WEATHER?
AVIATION
THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO INTO WEST CENTRAL MONTANA THIS
AFTERNOON. ALL TAF SITES HAVE A THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS MOST LIKELY FROM KGIC, KMSO, KHRF AND KBTM COULD
BE IMPACTED BY THIS CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING, BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN, HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 KTS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN
INTO THE EVENING WITH SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT IN
WESTERN MONTANA. AT LEAST PATCHY FOG CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY
MORNING.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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