722
FXUS65 KMSO 291947
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
147 PM MDT FRI AUG 29 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST MONTANA THIS
AFTERNOON CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAIN
- WARMING AND DRYING TREND THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN MONTANA IS CAUSING
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS FLOW PATTERN ALONG WITH LINGERING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHWEST MONTANA. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS UNDER
THE STRONGER CORES. THE STORMS WILL START TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET
THIS EVENING.
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADILY CLIMBING EACH DAY WITH AFTERNOON
READINGS BEING BACK IN THE 90S FOR MOST VALLEYS OF WESTERN MONTANA
AND BREAKING THE CENTURY MARK IN THE LOWER VALLEYS OF NORTH
CENTRAL IDAHO. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. LINGER SMOKE FROM REGIONAL FIRES COULD
HAMPER TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING THEIR FULL POTENTIAL.
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOR THE OROFINO TO RIGGINS
REGION WILL HAVE TO BE MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL HEAT RISK
CONDITIONS.
THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS (~60%) ARE SHOWING THAT THE RIDGE WILL
MOVE TOWARDS THE WEST BY MID NEXT WEEK. THIS CHANGE WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO COOL A FEW DEGREES BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
AVIATION
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHWEST MONTANA INTO WESTERN CENTRAL MONTANA THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN
AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS NEAR THE STRONGER CORES. KMSO AND KGPI
HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL OF BEING IMPACTED BY THIS CONVECTION AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT KBTM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND
CAUSING FAIR FLY CONDITIONS OTHER THAN THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZY
CONDITIONS DUE TO REGIONAL FIRES.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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