302
FXUS65 KMSO 310908
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
308 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- WARMING AND DRYING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK, POTENTIAL HEAT IMPACTS
BY MONDAY
A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP IS UNDERWAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD OVER WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO. THE WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO PEAK IN THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
TIMEFRAME, WITH VALLEYS REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S IN
WESTERN MONTANA AND 100 TO 107 IN THE LOWEST VALLEYS OF NORTH
CENTRAL IDAHO. THIS IS ROUGHLY 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. HEAT RISK WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE WEEK AS
HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE COUPLED WITH WARM OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES. THOUGH HEAT IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR BOTH WESTERN
MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO, THE MOST PRONOUNCED EFFECTS ARE
ANTICIPATED FROM OROFINO SOUTH TO RIGGINS. HEAT RELATED PRODUCTS
MAY BE NECESSARY.
THE ONE COMPLICATION MAY COME FROM ADDITIONAL WILDFIRE SMOKE, BOTH
FROM LOCAL FIRES AND ALSO REGIONAL FIRES IN OREGON. SMOKE CAN HAVE
A LARGE IMPACT ON DAYTIME TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY THIS TIME OF
YEAR AS THE SOLAR ANGLE BEGINS TO DECREASE. AREAS THAT SEE THICKER
WILDFIRE SMOKE MAY SEE TEMPERATURES AS MUCH AS 3 TO 8 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS. IN ADDITION, EASTERLY
WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE MUCH OF THIS WEEK. THOUGH THEY ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE OVERLY STRONG, IT COULD BE A CONSIDERATION FOR
GOING WILDFIRES IN THE REGION.
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLIGHT COOLING (5 TO 8 DEGREES)
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE ARE ALSO HINTS AT INCREASING
MOISTURE, WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION
FAIR FLYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS
FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT, TERRAIN DRIVEN WINDS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY THIS EVENING. SMOKE
FROM REGIONAL FIRES WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE HAZY CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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