821
FXUS65 KMSO 140745
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
145 AM MDT SUN SEP 14 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY FOR MOST OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES, FOR SOME A BENEFICIAL RAIN
- WARMING AND DRYING BY MID WEEK
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST THIS MORNING WILL
USHER IN A COLD FRONT BY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH WILL BE COMMON MID AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT AND SHOWERS. AREAS OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY AS A WEAK
MID LEVEL LOW ROTATES THROUGH.
THE PROBABILITY OF A WETTING RAIN IS HIGH 70-100% FOR MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES, EXCLUDING FAR NORTHWEST MONTANA WHERE CHANCES
ARE ONLY 20-40%. IN FACT, THE PROBABILITY FOR AT LEAST 0.25 INCH
OF RAINFALL IS 40-70% ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO AND WEST-CENTRAL
MONTANA. OVERALL, WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH A
BENEFICIAL RAIN FOR MANY LOCATIONS. ADDITIONALLY, IT WILL BE MUCH
COOLER WITH DAYTIME HIGHS 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY AS
SNOW LEVELS DROP TO AROUND 8500 FEET.
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BECOME STUCK BETWEEN DEEP TROUGHS DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK AND TEMPERATURES BLOSSOM 5 TO 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL, WITH DRYING CONDITIONS, AND LIGHT BREEZES. ENSEMBLE
CLUSTERS DIVERGE GREATLY AROUND THE 18TH AND 19TH ON THE DETAILS
BUT GENERALLY AGREE ON A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE WEST
COAST. THIS TROUGH SHOULD HELP TO BRING SHOWERS BACK INTO THE
FORECAST WITH A GRADUAL COOLING IN TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
OTHER THAN PATCHY MORNING VALLEY FOG, VFR CONDITIONS
WILL DOMINATE INTO THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AND ALONG A COLD FRONT. WIND GUSTS
OF 20-25 KTS WILL BE COMMON MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING
ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT AND SHOWERS. AREAS OF SHOWERS, PERIODIC
LOWERED CEILINGS/VISIBILITY AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY AS A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW
ROTATES THROUGH.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page