655
FXUS65 KMSO 031011
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
411 AM MDT FRI OCT 3 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- STEADY PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO INTO WEST
CENTRAL MONTANA THIS MORNING
- SNOW FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY
AROUND GLACIER NATIONAL PARK.
- WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS.
A WIDE BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS IDAHO
COUNTY INTO WEST CENTRAL MONTANA. AS OF 4AM MDT, AREAS UNDER THE
RAIN BAND HAS PICK UP 0.1 TO 0.45" OF PRECIPITATION. THIS BAND OF
PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE IS STILL ON TRACK TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD OUT
OF CANADA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BRING COOLER
AIR ALONG WITH INCREASE PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA. THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
ESPECIALLY AROUND GLACIER NATIONAL PARK. SNOW LEVELS APPEAR TO
DROP TO AROUND 3500 FEET AROUND THE PARK BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL OF 3 TO 8 INCHES OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF GLACIER. LOGAN PASS HAS
AROUND A 60% CHANCE OF RECEIVING 6 INCHES OF SNOW FROM THIS EVENT
WITH MARIAS PASSES HAVING A 50% CHANCE OF RECEIVING 2 INCHES OF
SNOW.
AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION. THE CLEAR SKIES AND THIS
COLD AIR MASS WILL ALLOW FOR THE HIGH POTENTIAL OF TEMPERATURES
TO DROP BELOW FREEZING BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
REGION. THE LOWER VALLEYS OF IDAHO AND CLEARWATER COUNTIES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING, BUT STILL BE QUITE LOW FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE PART
OF NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.
AVIATION
A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT IDAHO, LEMHI COUNTIES ALONG WITH WEST CENTRAL MONTANA. LOW
CEILINGS AND PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED UNDER
THIS BAND. THE PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS IT SLOWLY MOVES TOWARDS THE EAST.
KMSO AND KHRF WILL HAVE THE GREATEST IMPACT FROM THE
PRECIPITATION.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR WEST GLACIER REGION.
ID...NONE.
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