332
FXUS65 KMSO 050855
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
255 AM MDT SUN OCT 5 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- SNOW FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY AROUND
GLACIER NATIONAL PARK.
- WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS.
- DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WITH ITS AXIS RUNNING FROM SASKATCHEWAN
SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA WILL CONTINUE EAST TODAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER THROUGH THIS MORNING FOR MONTANA, MOSTLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. SNOW LEVELS ARE STAYING
AROUND 3000-4000 FEET IN NORTHWEST MONTANA NORTH OF ABOUT
FLATHEAD LAKE, AND 4000-5000 FEET SOUTH TO ABOUT INTERSTATE 90. AS
THE LOW CONTINUES EAST, IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT FROM EAST TO
WEST ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EARLY THIS MORNING.
NORTHEASTERLY AND NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 MPH WILL BE
COMMONPLACE EAST OF ABOUT HIGHWAY 93 FROM THE BORDER DOWN THROUGH
THE MISSION VALLEY. CHOPPY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON FLATHEAD LAKE
EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL RELAX BY ABOUT NOON.
A CLEARING AND DRYING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE LATER TODAY. EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES BY THIS EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW TURNS
NORTHWESTERLY AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT WILL MEAN PLENTY OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING TO ACCOMPANY THE COLD AIR MASS LEFT BEHIND BY THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THE FIRST WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE WILL TAKE
PLACE TONIGHT FOR THE MAJORITY OF WESTERN MONTANA VALLEYS AND THE
HIGHER VALLEYS OF NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO. THE LOWER VALLEYS OF
WESTERN IDAHO AND CLEARWATER COUNTIES WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING, THOUGH THEIR FIRST FROST OF THE YEAR IS LIKELY TO OCCUR
TONIGHT.
ENSEMBLE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE KEEPING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH ABOUT MIDWEEK FEATURING DRY
CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. MOST MEMBERS ARE
INDICATING UNSETTLED WEATHER ARRIVING LATER IN THE WEEK, THOUGH
TIMING AND INTENSITY ARE STILL RATHER UNCERTAIN.
AVIATION
SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AIRSPACE THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY
NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO NORTHWEST MONTANA INCLUDING
KGPI EARLY THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH BY ABOUT MIDDAY AND GRADUAL CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE
THROUGH TONIGHT.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR WEST GLACIER
REGION.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR
BITTERROOT/SAPPHIRE MOUNTAINS.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR BUTTE/BLACKFOOT
REGION...POTOMAC/SEELEY LAKE REGION.
ID...NONE.
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