862
FXUS65 KMSO 081854
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
1254 PM MDT WED OCT 8 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- FAIR WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THE START OF FRIDAY
- A COLD, WET SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN SATURDAY
- LATE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY, SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP CAUSING A
TRANSITION TO SNOW ABOVE 4500-5000 FEET
OUR FUTURE WEATHER MAKERS ARE SHOWING THEMSELVES ON SATELLITE.
ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST CAN BE SEEN A DIGGING TROUGH THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO DIG THROUGH ROUGHLY NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY TOMORROW.
SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA CAN BE SEEN HURRICANE PRISCILLA, WHICH
WILL PROVIDE AMPLE MOISTURE FOR THE WESTERN US.
CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
MORNING, EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS LATER THAT AFTERNOON. BOTH TODAY
AND THURSDAY WILL HAVE SOUTHERLY BREEZES INDUCED BY OUTFLOW FROM
THE PACIFIC TROUGH. FRIDAY BECOMES INTERESTING AS REMNANT MOISTURE
OF HURRICANES PRISCILLA AND TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE IS FUNNELED
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. FOR MOST THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS, BUT NORTH-CENTRAL
IDAHO AND THE PANHANDLE MAY BENEFIT FROM A JET STREAK WRAPPING
AROUND THE PACIFIC TROUGH. THIS JET STREAK WILL CREATE AN AREA OF
DIFFLUENCE OVER WESTERN IDAHO, WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.
MOISTURE INCREASES ON SATURDAY AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS, LIGHT RAIN,
OR DRIZZLE DEVELOPS, EXPECT A GRAY, COOL AUTUMN DAY.
THE INFLUENCE OF THE COOLER TROUGH BRINGS DOWN SNOW LEVELS BY
SUNDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS TODAY HAVE TRENDED UP SLIGHTLY BUT
REMAIN SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5000 FEET WILL
PROBABLY SEE AT LEAST A MIX WITH WET SNOW.
OUR CONCERNS CURRENTLY ARE WITH HIGH ELEVATION MOUNTAINS,
ESPECIALLY SEASONAL ONES LIKE LOGAN, THOMPSON, AND SKALKAHO THAT
ARE STILL OPEN. OUR MAIN MOUNTAIN PASSES MAY ONLY SEE IMPACTS IF
THEY ARE STILL WET AT SUNSET AND IT GETS SUFFICIENTLY COLD ENOUGH
TO CAUSE ICING AFTER DARK. ADDITIONALLY, THOSE RECREATING AT
ELEVATIONS PREPARE FOR POTENTIAL HYPOTHERMIA CONDITIONS AND SNOW
COVERED OR MUDDY FOREST SERVICE ROADS.
AFTER MONDAY THE MODELS DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS WITH A MAJORITY OF
THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITY MODELS SUGGESTING A REPEAT OF MOUNTAIN SNOW
VALLEY RAIN ON TUESDAY AND THE GOOD PORTION OF THE US OR GFS
MODELING SYSTEM SUGGESTING SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERS
THROUGH MID WEEK.
AVIATION
SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON, FOCUSED ON THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AIRSPACE. GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT
KHRF, KBTM, AND KSMN STARTING EARLY AFTERNOON.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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