842
FNUS75 KMSO 100920
FWSMSO
SPOT FORECAST FOR ELK CREEK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
320 AM MDT FRI OCT 10 2025
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0800 MDT ON OCTOBER 10.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
ABNORMALLY WARM TODAY, WITH EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND THIS
MORNING SHIFTING TO SOUTH WINDS BY THIS AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING, WITH ACTIVITY DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST OF
THE FIRE BY 600 PM AND MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA BETWEEN 700-1000
PM. A WESTERLY WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED AS SHOWER ACTIVITY PASSES
THROUGH. A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AS A PACIFIC SYSTEM
PASSES, WITH RAIN BECOMING WIDESPREAD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING, WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING AND SNOW ACCUMULATING BY SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
REST OF TODAY
* SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY.
* CWR (> 0.10 INCH)...0 PERCENT.
* CHANCE LIGHTNING....0 PERCENT.
* MAX TEMPERATURE.....71-76.
* MIN HUMIDITY........28-33 PERCENT.
* WIND (20 FT)........EAST-SOUTHEAST 4-6 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 7-11
MPH THIS MORNING BECOMING SOUTH 3-6 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 8-12 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON.
* MIXING HEIGHT.......2500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7000 FT AGL.
* MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 15 MPH.
* PRECIP AMOUNT.......0.00 INCHES.
TONIGHT
* SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING, THEN RAIN LIKELY
OVERNIGHT.
* CWR (> 0.10 INCH)...20 PERCENT.
* CHANCE LIGHTNING....15 PERCENT.
* MIN TEMPERATURE.....40-45.
* MAX HUMIDITY........83-88 PERCENT.
* WIND (20 FT)........WEST-SOUTHWEST 3-5 MPH.
* MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
* MIXING WINDS........SOUTHWEST 10 MPH.
* PRECIP AMOUNT.......0.02-0.08 INCHES.
SATURDAY
* SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. RAIN LIKELY IN THE MORNING,
THEN CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
* CWR (> 0.10 INCH)...20 PERCENT.
* CHANCE LIGHTNING....0 PERCENT.
* MAX TEMPERATURE.....50-55.
* MIN HUMIDITY........61-66 PERCENT.
* WIND (20 FT)........VARIABLE 2-5 MPH BECOMING WEST 5-7 MPH WITH
GUSTS OF 12-18 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
* MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4000 FT AGL LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON.
* MIXING WINDS........WEST 15 MPH.
* PRECIP AMOUNT.......0.02-0.08 INCHES.
FORECASTER...LUKINBEAL
REQUESTED BY...JASON KEISTER
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2521892.21/MSO
.DELDT 10/10/25
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL BRETT.PARGMAN@USDA.GOV,JASON.KEISTER@USDA.GOV,BRANDON.HIGHTOWER@USDA.GOV,ANDRE.DULAC@USDA.GOV
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