257
FNUS75 KMSO 101109
FWSMSO
SPOT FORECAST FOR ISLAND CREEK FIRE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
509 AM MDT FRI OCT 10 2025
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 1000 PDT ON OCTOBER 10.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
WARM TODAY, WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING
BECOMING SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY MID-AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING, WITH ACTIVITY DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST OF THE FIRE.
A WESTERLY WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED AS SHOWER ACTIVITY PASSES
THROUGH THIS EVENING. A STARK COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED SATURDAY
AS A PACIFIC SYSTEM PASSES, WITH RAIN BECOMING WIDESPREAD SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING NEAR 4,500
FEET SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BY MONDAY MORNING, 48-HOUR
PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE FORECAST TO BE 0.60-1.10 INCHES ACROSS
THE FIRE AREA.
REST OF TODAY
* SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MID-AFTERNOON.
* CWR (> 0.10 INCH)...10 PERCENT.
* CHANCE LIGHTNING....10 PERCENT.
* MAX TEMPERATURE.....65-70.
* MIN HUMIDITY........32-37 PERCENT.
* WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST 6-10 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 15 MPH
BECOMING SOUTH 4-7 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 12-16 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
* MIXING HEIGHT.......3500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 7500 FT AGL IN THE
AFTERNOON.
* MIXING WINDS........SOUTH 20 MPH.
* PRECIP AMOUNT.......0.00 INCHES.
TONIGHT
* SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. RAIN SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING, THEN RAIN LIKELY OVERNIGHT.
* CWR (> 0.10 INCH)...40 PERCENT.
* CHANCE LIGHTNING....25 PERCENT.
* MIN TEMPERATURE.....36-41.
* MAX HUMIDITY........90-95 PERCENT.
* WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST 5-7 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 15 MPH
SHIFTING TO THE WEST 4-7 MPH OVERNIGHT.
* MIXING HEIGHT.......3500 FT AGL DECREASING TO LESS THAN 100 FT
AGL.
* MIXING WINDS........WEST 10 MPH.
* PRECIP AMOUNT.......0.04-0.15 INCHES.
SATURDAY
* SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. RAIN LIKELY IN THE MORNING,
THEN RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.
* CWR (> 0.10 INCH)...50 PERCENT.
* CHANCE LIGHTNING....0 PERCENT.
* MAX TEMPERATURE.....39-44.
* MIN HUMIDITY........81-86 PERCENT.
* WIND (20 FT)........WEST 5-7 MPH. GUSTS 10-15 MPH ON MIDSLOPES
AND RIDGES.
* MIXING HEIGHT.......1000 FT AGL.
* MIXING WINDS........NORTHWEST 10 MPH.
* PRECIP AMOUNT.......0.07-0.15 INCHES.
FORECASTER...LUKINBEAL
REQUESTED BY...XAVIER FRANK
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2523138.3/MSO
.DELDT 10/10/25
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL XAVIER.FRANK@USDA.GOV,XAVIE.C.FRANK@GMAIL.COM
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