163
FXUS65 KMSO 130920
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
320 AM MDT MON OCT 13 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- SLICK TRAVEL: SNOW AND ICE ARE CREATING SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS
THIS MORNING. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE IN THE
BUTTE/BLACKFOOT REGION, WHERE ROADS ARE SNOW-COVERED.
- COLD AND WINDY: THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK. GUSTY
WINDS ARE CREATING MORNING WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
- LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY MORNING: ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING, PRIMARILY FROM LEMHI COUNTY INTO WEST-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA.
WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES CONTINUE THIS MORNING. THE
IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM HAVE BEEN HIGHLY VARIED ACROSS THE REGION
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF TERRAIN AND EASTERLY WINDS.
THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE CONCENTRATED
IN THE FOLLOWING AREAS:
- THE BUTTE/BLACKFOOT REGION: INCLUDING THE CITY OF BUTTE.
- I-90: EAST OF MISSOULA THROUGH HOMESTAKE PASS.
- HIGHWAY 12: GARRISON THROUGH MACDONALD PASS.
- HIGHWAY 200: HELMVILLE THROUGH ROGERS PASS.
CONVERSELY, STRONG EASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS HAVE LIMITED
PRECIPITATION AND KEPT TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING IN VALLEYS LIKE
MISSOULA, RESULTING IN FAR FEWER IMPACTS.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY, WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THIS
MORNING BEFORE BECOMING MORE ISOLATED BY THE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE STARKLY BELOW AVERAGE, RUNNING ABOUT
10-15 DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL.
LOOKING AHEAD, MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING. THIS COULD AGAIN IMPACT TRAVEL,
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN BITTERROOT VALLEY, LEMHI COUNTY, AND
OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA PASSES.
THE COLD AIRMASS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE FROM TUESDAY ONWARD, THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID-OCTOBER. THE
PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED, WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A POTENTIAL
"YELLOWSTONE LOW" COULD DEVELOP FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY,
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH HIGH-ELEVATION SNOW TO
SOUTHWEST MONTANA.
AVIATION
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE OVER THE
REGION. GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING,
WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS OCCURRING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND THROUGH
TERRAIN GAPS. WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IS EXPECTED, WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS. MOST OF THE IFR IMPACTS FROM
ONGOING SNOW WILL BE AT THE KBTM TERMINAL AND SURROUNDING
LOCATIONS, THOUGH THE INTENSITY THERE SHOULD TAPER OFF THROUGH THE
MORNING. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THIS
EVENING AS BOTH WINDS AND SHOWERS DIMINISH. HOWEVER, ANOTHER ROUND
OF LIGHT SNOW IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
BRING A NEW PERIOD OF LOWERING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY, PRIMARILY
AFFECTING LEMHI COUNTY IN IDAHO AND SPREADING INTO WEST-CENTRAL
MONTANA.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR
BITTERROOT/SAPPHIRE MOUNTAINS...BUTTE/BLACKFOOT REGION...
FLATHEAD/MISSION VALLEYS...LOWER CLARK FORK REGION...
POTOMAC/SEELEY LAKE REGION.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR KOOTENAI/CABINET
REGION...WEST GLACIER REGION.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR FLATHEAD/MISSION
VALLEYS.
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR
NORTHERN CLEARWATER MOUNTAINS...SOUTHERN CLEARWATER
MOUNTAINS.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
EASTERN LEMHI COUNTY...WESTERN LEMHI COUNTY.
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