800
FXUS65 KMSO 140837
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
237 AM MDT TUE OCT 14 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- VALLEY RAIN/SNOW AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY.
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND LIGHT
MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FOR SUNDAY, AND A RETURN TO
COOLER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING SHOWERS TO LEMHI
COUNTY, SOUTHWEST, AND WEST-CENTRAL MONTANA TODAY. THROUGH THIS
MORNING, LIGHT SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE IN VALLEYS AND MOUNTAINS ACROSS
LEMHI COUNTY AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA, WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS
EXPECTED.
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS A LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS NEAR YELLOWSTONE FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND HIGH-ELEVATION SNOW, MAINLY TO SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND LEMHI
COUNTY. IN CONTRAST, AREAS FARTHER NORTH AND WEST, INCLUDING
NORTHWEST MONTANA AND THE REMAINDER OF NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO, ARE
LIKELY TO STAY DRY WITH MILD VALLEY TEMPERATURES.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, WEATHER MODELS SHOW A DIP IN THE JET
STREAM APPROACHING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, THOUGH DIFFERENCES
IN ITS TIMING AND STRENGTH STILL EXIST. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO
INVOLVES MILD TEMPERATURES WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ON SATURDAY
BEFORE THE MAIN SYSTEM ARRIVES. THIS WILL USHER IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. BY MONDAY, MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT A DEEP
TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION, ENSURING A CONTINUED PERIOD OF
COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER.
AVIATION
A PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK IS CAUSING IFR CONDITIONS
AND LOW CEILINGS AT KBTM AND ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, WHICH
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING. SHOWERS APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL ALSO LOWER VISIBILITY IN SNOW ACROSS LEMHI COUNTY
AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA, AFFECTING THE KBTM AND KSMN TERMINALS. FOR
THE REST OF THE REGION, EXPECT LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS AND
OBSCURED TERRAIN, WITH CONDITIONS FORECAST TO IMPROVE OVER NORTH-
CENTRAL IDAHO AND NORTHWEST MONTANA BY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND TERRAIN-DRIVEN, THOUGH SOME EASTERLY FLOW
WILL PERSIST IN CERTAIN AREAS.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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