669
FXUS65 KMSO 141925
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
125 PM MDT TUE OCT 14 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- VALLEY RAIN/SNOW AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS FOR WEST-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST MONTANA FORECAST AREA TODAY.
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH VALLEY RAIN SHOWERS AND LIGHT
MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY FOR SOUTHWEST
MONTANA.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FOR SUNDAY, AND A RETURN TO
COOLER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY.
THE CLOUD COVER THAT LIMITED COOLING OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION WILL LINGER IN THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT, OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WERE RAISED SLIGHTLY FROM THE
PREVIOUS 24-HOUR FORECAST. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL ALSO
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS ALONG I-90 FROM BONNER TO DEER
LODGE, AND ALONG HIGHWAY 12 AND 200 TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS A LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS NEAR YELLOWSTONE FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND HIGH-ELEVATION SNOW, MAINLY TO SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND LEMHI
COUNTY. IN CONTRAST, AREAS FARTHER NORTH AND WEST, INCLUDING
NORTHWEST MONTANA AND THE REMAINDER OF NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO, ARE
LIKELY TO STAY MOSTLY DRY WITH SEASONABLE VALLEY TEMPERATURES.
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE LOW TO
MID-50S IN WESTERN MONTANA AND THE LOW 60S IN NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A DIP IN THE
JET STREAM APPROACHING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, THOUGH
DIFFERENCES IN ITS TIMING AND STRENGTH STILL EXIST. THE MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO INVOLVES MILD TEMPERATURES WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE THE MAIN SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL USHER IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY MONDAY, MODELS ARE IN
STRONG AGREEMENT THAT A DEEP TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION,
ENSURING A CONTINUED PERIOD OF COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER.
AVIATION
A WEAK DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON CAUSING LIGHT TO MODERATE
PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE
PRECIPITATION IS FALLING MAINLY AS SNOW CAUSING REDUCED VISIBILITY
AND OBSCURED TERRAIN. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. A LOW LEVEL STRATUS DECK IS EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT, PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA.
ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO LEMHI COUNTY AND
SOUTHWEST MONTANA WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING MORE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THAT COULD IMPACT KSMN AND KBTM.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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