098
FXUS65 KMSO 260848
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
248 AM MDT SUN OCT 26 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- SNOW LEVELS ARE FALLING AND MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS DONE,
BUT LINGERING SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY BRING SOME SNOW TO
THE VALLEYS.
- A RIDGE STARTS BUILDING IN ON MONDAY LEADING TO SOME NICE
WEATHER THIS WEEK.
- THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE NEXT WEEKEND.
WITH THE COLD FRONT EAST OF THE REGION AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVING OVER US, SNOW LEVELS ARE FALLING THIS MORNING. THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN TO 3,500 TO 4,000 FEET TODAY, AND REMAIN
THERE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE MOISTURE WENT THROUGH
ALREADY, BUT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT COMBINED WITH
THE LOW SNOW LEVELS MEANS THERE'S A CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW IN THE
VALLEYS OF WESTERN MONTANA. MODELS ARE SHOWING A 30-50% CHANCE IN
THE VALLEYS OF WESTERN MONTANA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. IT'S STILL
EARLY IN THE SEASON WITH QUITE A BIT OF WARMTH IN THE GROUND, SO
THE SNOW SHOULD MELT QUICKLY ON PAVED SURFACES, BUT IT MAY
ACCUMULATE ON ELEVATED AND GRASSY SURFACES. IN ANY CASE, IT WOULD
BE GENERALLY LESS THAN HALF AN INCH ANYWHERE IT DOES ACCUMULATE.
MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS MAINLY ABOVE 6,000 FT WILL CONTINUE TO PICK UP
SNOW WITH SOME LOCATIONS PICKING UP 4 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW,
DEPENDING ON ELEVATION.
MONDAY A RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION, GIVING US A BREAK
FROM THE WET, WINDY WEATHER. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY HAVE A GOOD
PATTERN FOR VALLEY FOG, ESPECIALLY COMING RIGHT AFTER ALL THIS
RAIN. HOWEVER, UNLIKE RECENT PERIODS OF RIDGING, THIS ONE WILL BE
INTERRUPTED WITH ONE OR TWO SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER THE RIDGE.
CURRENT MODEL FORECASTS HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT FROM THESE
SHORTWAVES OTHER THAN SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND MILD BREEZES.
CURRENT LONG RANGE ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING THE RIDGE BREAK DOWN
SOMETIME NEXT WEEKEND. HOW THE MODELS SHOW THE BREAKDOWN VARIES
WIDELY, BUT TAKEN ALL TOGETHER THEY ARE POINTING TO A SYSTEM WITH
A SIMILAR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AS THIS MOST RECENT ONE, BUT MUCH
HIGHER SNOW LEVELS.
AVIATION
SNOW LEVELS ARE FALLING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
AND WILL BE DOWN NEAR TERMINAL ELEVATIONS WITH KBTM WELL ABOVE THE
SNOW LEVELS. HOWEVER, MOST OF THE MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
DONE UNTIL MONDAY MORNING. THE SHOWERS LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONT
AND UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE SNOW SHOWERS IN MOST
LOCATIONS. DUE TO WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
ACCUMULATING SNOW AT AREA TERMINALS EXCEPT POTENTIALLY KBTM, IT
WILL REALLY DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS. SNOW POTENTIAL
CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR
BITTERROOT/SAPPHIRE MOUNTAINS...LOWER CLARK FORK REGION...
WEST GLACIER REGION.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MDT
MONDAY FOR BITTERROOT/SAPPHIRE MOUNTAINS...BUTTE/BLACKFOOT
REGION...KOOTENAI/CABINET REGION...LOWER CLARK FORK
REGION...POTOMAC/SEELEY LAKE REGION...WEST GLACIER REGION.
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR
NORTHERN CLEARWATER MOUNTAINS...SOUTHERN CLEARWATER
MOUNTAINS.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM MDT /5 PM PDT/ THIS EVENING TO
NOON MDT /11 AM PDT/ MONDAY FOR LOWER HELLS CANYON/SALMON
RIVER REGION...NORTHERN CLEARWATER MOUNTAINS...SOUTHERN
CLEARWATER MOUNTAINS...WESTERN LEMHI COUNTY.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page