331
FXUS65 KMSO 280908
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
308 AM MDT TUE OCT 28 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- A RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE REGION TODAY.
- A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE RIDGE CAUSING SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS WEDNESDAY.
- ANOTHER ATMOSPHERIC RIVER IS ON TRACK FOR NEXT WEEKEND, THOUGH
THIS ONE LOOKS WEAKER AND WITH HIGHER SNOW LEVELS THAN RECENT
STORMS.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE REGION TODAY. SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY PERSIST IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS
THIS MORNING, BUT HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING QUICKLY TODAY WHICH
SHOULD REALLY SHUT DOWN THE SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT QUICKLY MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW FACTORS MAKE THIS A PRETTY LOW IMPACT
SYSTEM. FIRST, IT'S MOVING THROUGH A RIDGE, SO THE LARGE SCALE
RIDGE AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL WORK AGAINST EACH OTHER AND
THE RIDGE WILL HELP KEEP THE SNOW LEVELS HIGHER. SECOND, IT'S
MOVING SO FAST IT WON'T HAVE MUCH TIME TO ACCUMULATE SNOW IN AREAS
ABOVE THE SNOW LEVEL 5,000 TO 6,000 FT SNOW LEVEL. AND THIRD, IT
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY, SO ACCUMULATING
SNOW ON THE ROADS WILL BE HARDER DUE TO SOLAR RADIATION WARMING
THE ROADS DURING THE DAY.
THEN THE NEXT ATMOSPHERIC RIVER SHOULD ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND. MOST
OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
FOR SUNDAY OR MONDAY, SO IT WILL MAINLY FALL AS RAIN WITH SNOW
LEVELS LOOKING TO BE AROUND 7,000 FT OR HIGHER WITH THIS NEXT
ROUND.
AVIATION
A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL CAUSE VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TODAY. TOMORROW, WEDNESDAY, A SHORT
WAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE OVER THE RIDGE CAUSING BREEZY CONDITIONS
AND SOME SHOWERS. CURRENT TIMING OF THE SHORT WAVE HAS IT MOVING
THROUGH DURING THE DAY, SO NO IMPACTS FROM SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT
ARE TERMINALS WITH THIS WAVE.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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