952
FXUS65 KMSO 281853
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
1253 PM MDT TUE OCT 28 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- A FAST-MOVING TROUGH WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AND GUSTY
WINDS WEDNESDAY.
- HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
- THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS ON TRACK FOR NEXT WEEKEND FEATURING
WARM TEMPERATURES AND RAIN.
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON IS INDICATING CLEAR SKIES OVER MOST
OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH SOME HIGH CIRRUS MOVING OVER NORTH-
CENTRAL IDAHO. INCREASING CLOUDS ARE BUILDING TO THE WEST AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO
INCREASE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
INLAND. THIS SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE IN THE MORNING, BRINGING RAIN TO
NORTHWEST MONTANA AND IDAHO/CLEARWATER COUNTIES. THE SNOW LEVEL
WILL BE ABOUT 5000 FEET. LIQUID PRECIPITATION TOTALS SHOULD BE
LESS THAN ABOUT 0.10 INCHES. INCREASING WEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY
A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. GUSTS TO ABOUT 20 MPH WILL BE COMMONPLACE
FOR WESTERN MONTANA, WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND MOUNTAIN CRESTS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK FOR THURSDAY AND LAST INTO FRIDAY.
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE BY SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE SPINNING IN
THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL SEND PACIFIC MOISTURE UP FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. GUIDANCE ON THE LEVEL OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH THIS
SYSTEM HAS BEEN TRENDING WEAKER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARM
SIDE, AND SNOW LEVELS STAY UP IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 7000 - 9000
FT ON SATURDAY NIGHT. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND WILL
BE IN THE 50S FOR THE WESTERN MONTANA VALLEYS, AND 60S IN THE
LOWER VALLEYS OF IDAHO. BOTTOM LINE IS TO EXPECT UNSETTLED WEATHER
THIS WEEKEND, MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
AVIATION
VFR FLYING INTO THIS EVENING AS HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SLOWLY INCREASE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN. CHANGES
ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A RIDGE BREAKS DOWN WITH A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY WORKING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THE FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS BEGIN IN NORTHWEST
MONTANA JUST BEFORE SUNRISE, REACH THE TERRAIN AROUND KMSO BY
MIDDAY WITH SHOWERS DIMINISHING COMPLETELY UPON REACHING
SOUTHWEST MONTANA. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE A CONCERN
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE NOTICEABLY STRONGER ON WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS
OF 15-25 KTS COMMON ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS DIMINISH
QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING RETURNS
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH VFR FLYING AND LIGHT WINDS FOR MOST
AREAS. TWO EXCEPTIONS ON THURSDAY MAY BE SHALLOW MORNING VALLEY
FOG ALONG WITH HINTS OF LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING IN NORTHWEST
MONTANA THAT COULD LAST PAST MIDDAY.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page