250
FXUS65 KMSO 290915
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
315 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE BREEZY CONDITIONS AND RAIN
SHOWERS TODAY.
- ANOTHER ATMOSPHERIC RIVER IS COMING THIS WEEKEND, BUT THIS TIME
WITH VERY HIGH SNOW LEVELS.
- THE LONG TERM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN ACTIVE WITH A MINOR COLD
FRONT PASSAGE EVERY FEW DAYS.
A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT ARE ENTERING THE REGION
THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION QUICKLY TODAY. THIS
WILL CAUSE BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND SOME SHOWERS. SNOW
LEVELS THIS MORNING ARE STARTING OUT HIGH NEAR 7,000 FT, BUT THEY
WILL DROP DOWN TO AROUND 5,000 FT BEHIND THE FRONT. MOST
LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY THE POPULATED AREAS OF WESTERN MONTANA WILL
ONLY PICK UP A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF RAIN AT MOST. HIGH ELEVATIONS
THAT DO PICK UP SNOW WILL PICK UP A FEW TENTHS TO A COUPLE OF
INCHES, AND THOSE AREA WILL MAINLY BE IN NORTHWEST MONTANA.
CONDITIONS CLEAR OUT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE, BUT
THEN ANOTHER ATMOSPHERIC RIVER STARTS MOVING INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE STORM TOTAL RAIN, OR LIQUID
EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS, HAS BEEN WAVERING QUITE
A LOT WITH THIS SYSTEM IN THE MODELS. CURRENT FORECASTS TAKEN
ALTOGETHER HAVE THE CHANCES FOR 1 INCH OR MORE IN 48 HOURS ONLY
REACHING 30-40 PERCENT ALONG THE MONTANA-IDAHO BORDER AND INTO
CLEARWATER AND IDAHO COUNTIES IN IDAHO. THIS REMAINS AN OVERALL
DOWN TREND COMPARED TO RECENT ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENTS. SNOW
LEVELS ARE ALSO STAYING HIGH AT ABOVE 6,000 FT FOR MOST OF THIS
EVENT WITH THE CHANCES FOR 1 INCH OR MORE OF SNOW IN THOSE SAME
AREAS AROUND 25% OR LESS.
AS THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WINDS DOWN THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS
ACTIVE. ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING BETTER CHANCES FOR AN INCH OR MORE
OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS LATER NEXT WEEK, BUT THE CHANCES ARE
STILL BELOW 10% IN THE VALLEYS.
AVIATION
A FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT TODAY WILL
CAUSE SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS AND POTENTIALLY BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
AT AREA TERMINALS TODAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH, AND WITH
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION OCCURRING DURING THE DAY SNOW AT AREA
TERMINALS IS NOT A CONCERN.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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