633
FXUS65 KMSO 291849
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
1249 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- QUIET AND DRY WEATHER AS RIDGE BUILDS THROUGH HALLOWEEN.
- ANOTHER PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND VERY
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW THIS WEEKEND.
- PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK WITH A FEW SHORT
BREAKS.
THIS MORNING'S COLD FRONT HAS QUICKLY PASSED THROUGH THE REGION
AND CONTINUES TO BRING BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS IN ITS WAKE (AND
VERY WINDY CONDITIONS NEAR AND EAST OF THE DIVIDE). PRECIPITATION
HAS MOSTLY ENDED THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME HIGHER
TERRAIN CONTINUING TO PRODUCE OROGRAPHIC CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WHICH MAY CONTINUE INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BRINGING INCREASINGLY DRY CONDITIONS,
NEAR (AND BELOW) FREEZING MORNINGS WITH POCKETS OF VALLEY FOG OR
LOW STRATUS, AND SEASONABLE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. A VERY WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING A
BRIEF STINT OF CLOUD COVER BUT NOT MUCH, IF ANYTHING, IN THE WAY
OF PRECIPITATION. THE MAIN IMPACT THIS FEATURE MAY HAVE WOULD BE
TO MODERATE THE EXTENT OF OVERNIGHT COOLING INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THOUGH HALLOWEEN IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AND FREE OF WEATHER
CONCERNS, ANOTHER DECAYING PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE BEGINS TO
MOVE ONSHORE THIS WEEKEND AND IS FORECAST TO RIDE UP AND OVER THE
FLATTENING RIDGE IN PLACE. HIGH SNOW LEVELS (GENERALLY WELL-ABOVE
7,000 FT), BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS, AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION
ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL MONTANA
MAKING FOR A RATHER GLOOMY AND TRULY FALL-FEELING WEEKEND AS
CLOCKS TURN BACK TO STANDARD TIME. THERE'S CURRENTLY A 75% CHANCE
TO SEE ABOUT A QUARTER INCH OF PRECIPITATION, OR MORE, ALONG THE
MONTANA-IDAHO BORDER, IN HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE WINDWARD
SLOPE, WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN VALLEY LOCATIONS AS YOU HEAD EAST.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK, THE WEATHER PATTERN SEEMS TO REMAIN ACTIVE
WITH SOME ~24-HOUR PERIODS OF QUIETER WEATHER AT TIMES IN BETWEEN
STORM SYSTEMS. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGHER CHANCES
FOR A MORE IMPACTFUL AND WIDESPREAD COOLER/WETTER WEATHER EVENT
BY THE MID TO LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION
CONTINUE BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT IS SETTLING ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MONTANA AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS OF 15-25 KTS WILL BE
COMMON THROUGH EARLY EVENING THEN DIMINISH QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING RETURNS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH VFR FLYING
AND LIGHT WINDS FOR MOST AREAS. TWO POTENTIAL EXCEPTIONS TO VFR
CONDITIONS: 1) SHALLOW MORNING VALLEY FOG, 2) THERE ARE ALSO HINTS
OF AREAS OF LOW STRATUS IN NORTHWEST MONTANA ON THURSDAY,
EXTENDING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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