095
FXUS65 KMSO 081957
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
1257 PM MST SAT NOV 8 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG THIS WEEKEND.
- INCREASED WINDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST MONTANA
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
- RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE REGION. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS,
WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY FOG AND STRATUS EACH MORNING
THROUGH MONDAY.
ON MONDAY, A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BEAT DOWN THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE. A BREEZY AFTERNOON IS FORECAST ESPECIALLY ON WESTERN
SIDES OF VALLEYS AS MIX-DOWN WINDS FLOW DOWN THE MOUNTAINS. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW FOR A RESET ON STAGNANT AIR CONDITIONS IN
VALLEYS AND, THE VALLEY FOG AND STRATUS WILL CONTRACT TUESDAY
MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE REBOUNDS MID-WEEK AND VALLEY FOG AND STRATUS EXPAND
YET AGAIN AS THE AIR MASS STAGNATES.
WHILE THERE REMAINS TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR A FRIDAY BREAKDOWN OF
THE RIDGE, GREATER THAN 80% OF MODELS SUPPORT THIS SOLUTION. THE
FOCUS OF MOISTURE FOR THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY FOR NORTH-CENTRAL
ID AND NORTHWEST MT. AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION, ROUGHLY
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY, THERE IS ONLY A 14% CHANCE OF WINTER TRAVEL
IMPACTS AT PASS LEVEL. THAT SAID, FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
THAT PROBABILITY INCREASES TO 60%.
AVIATION
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR FOG IN THE
VICINITY OF KGPI AND KMSO SUNDAY MORNING. THE MORE LIKELY
SOLUTION HOWEVER IS THAT THE SURFACE LAYER IS DRY ENOUGH THAT LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY MORNING.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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