677
FXUS65 KMSO 092006
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
106 PM MST SUN NOV 9 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- INCREASED WINDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
- REBOUNDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A PATTERN CHANGE AT THE END OF THE WEEK BUT
LOW CONFIDENCE IN WHAT THE IMPACTS FROM THAT WILL BE.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL FLATTEN
TODAY, OPENING THE DOOR FOR A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON MONDAY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON IS REVEALING HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
MONDAY'S DISTURBANCE WILL NOT PACK MUCH OF A PUNCH. EXPECT CLOUDY
SKIES WITH LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NORTHWEST MONTANA AND THE MONTANA-
IDAHO BORDER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN TOO WARM FOR SNOW BELOW
7000 - 8000 FEET. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE SHORTWAVE AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK BECOMES POSITIONED
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL STAY IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND THE
CRESTS OF THE MOUNTAIN RANGES OF WESTERN MONTANA, WHERE THERE
WILL BE A 40% CHANCE OF GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 MPH. HIGH PRESSURE
REBOUNDS LATER ON TUESDAY, HOWEVER ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO KEEP SOME PRECIPITATION
IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY ACROSS NORTHWEST MONTANA.
WHILE THERE REMAINS TIMING DIFFERENCES FOR A FRIDAY BREAKDOWN OF
THE RIDGE, GREATER THAN 80% OF MODELS SUPPORT THIS SOLUTION. THE
FOCUS OF MOISTURE FOR THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY FOR NORTH-CENTRAL
IDAHO AND NORTHWEST MONTANA. UNCERTAINTY ON THE DETAILS OF THIS
SYSTEM REMAIN HIGH, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SNOW OVER LOOKOUT, LOLO, LOST TRAIL, AND MARIAS PASSES. IF
YOU HAVE TRAVEL PLANS FOR NEXT WEEKEND, CONTINUE TO CHECK BACK
FOR FORECAST UPDATES AS THE WEEK UNFOLDS.
AVIATION
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT
WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AHEAD OF MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
ON MONDAY. THE BIGGEST IMPACT ON ON AVIATION FOR MONDAY WILL BE
INCREASING WEST WINDS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH GUSTS OF
ABOUT 50 KNOTS OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page