816
FXUS65 KMSO 112011
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
111 PM MST TUE NOV 11 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- STABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING CAUSING PATCHY FOG
AND LOW STRATUS
- COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION
- ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK
LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTHWEST MT AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. WHILE IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ARE NOT EXPECTED FROM THE
PRECIPITATION, IT WILL LIKELY WORK TO INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OF FOG
OR LOW STRATUS NORTH OF I-90. SOUTH OF I-90 IS A DIFFERENT STORY
AND AREAS LIKE THE MISSOULA AND THE NORTHERN BITTERROOT VALLEYS
MAY YET AGAIN EXPERIENCE DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. CURRENTLY, THERE
LACKS SUFFICIENT CONFIDENCE OF FOG DEVELOP TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY,
HOWEVER, PLANNING A FEW EXTRA MINUTES INTO YOUR MORNING COMMUTE
MAY ALLEVIATE SOME STRESS TOMORROW MORNING.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE
OF OREGON AND WASHINGTON. EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES
TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF 30
TO 45 MPH WILL BE COMMON AND LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING FRIDAY. GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN VALLEYS
NORTH OF I-90 AND THE CAMAS PRAIRIE ID.
THE PRECIPITATION WHILE INITIALLY FOCUSED ON CLEARWATER COUNTY ID
AND NORTHWEST MT WEST OF US-93, WILL EVENTUALLY BY FRIDAY MORNING
SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL BE
MEAGER FOR MOST, 0.10" IN VALLEYS AND UP TO 0.50" IN THE
MOUNTAINS BUT A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS IN THE CABINETS AND PURCELL
MOUNTAINS HAVE A 70% CHANCE OF RECEIVING AN INCH OR GREATER. SNOW
IMPACTS WILL MAINLY BE AT PASS LEVEL AND HIGHER, 4500 FEET OR
GREATER. WINTER DRIVING IMPACTS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON TIMING
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS AMOUNTS AND SNOWFALL RATES ARE NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE.
AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH INTERMITTENT
PERIODS OF HIGH PRESSURE AND QUICK HITTING TROUGHS THROUGH THE
THANKSGIVING WEEK. KEEP CHECKING FUTURE FORECASTS AS MODELS
SUGGEST A 50% CHANCE OF SNOW LEVELS LOWERING INTO VALLEYS TUESDAY
MORNING. THE MODELS ARE NOT OVERLY ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT AVAILABLE
MOISTURE DURING THAT TIMEFRAME HOWEVER.
AVIATION
FOG AND LOW STRATUS HAS GENERALLY LIFTED FOR MOST
VALLEY LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF VALLEYS OF
NORTHWEST MONTANA NEAR THE IDAHO BORDER (LIBBY, TROY) AND LOWER
VALLEYS OF NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO (PORTIONS OF THE CAMAS PRAIRIE AND
IN THE VICINITY OF KAMIAH AND OROFINO). THESE AREAS SHOULD SEE
IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, LIGHT WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS EVENING. TONIGHT, A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO AND NORTHWEST MONTANA,
INCREASING A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK AND BRINGING SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM FO RAIN BELOW ROUGHLY 5000 FEET. THIS
WILL CAUSE THE TERRAIN TO BE OBSCURED AND LOCALLY LOWER
VISIBILITY, THOUGH THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO KEEP WIDESPREAD FOG FROM
DEVELOPING, GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90. SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
90, PRECIPITATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE MORE
BROKEN, WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR FOG TO REDEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF
KMSO AND KHRF AFTER 12/0600Z. IN ADDITION, WINDS ALOFT WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST WITH THE PASSING DISTURBANCE AND MAY LEAD
TO SOME MECHANICAL TURBULENCE AT MOUNTAIN LEVELS.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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