040
FXUS65 KMSO 121054
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
354 AM MST WED NOV 12 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHWEST MONTANA
- COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING GUSTY WEST WINDS AND
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
- ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES THIS MORNING BRINGING LIGHT RAIN TO MOST LOCATIONS.
SEVERAL VALLEYS ACROSS NORTHWEST MONTANA DROPPED BELOW FREEZING
THIS PAST EVENING, SO THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION TYPE COULD BE
FREEZING RAIN BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO RAIN. THE VALLEYS OF
GREATEST CONCERN THIS MORNING IS HWY 2 FROM LIBBY TO ESSEX, HWY 93
FROM KALISPELL TO EUREKA AND HWY 83 DOWN THE SEELEY/SWAN VALLEY.
IMPACTS FROM THE FREEZING RAIN IS ANTICIPATED TO BE MINIMAL DUE TO
A QUICK TRANSITION TO RAIN AND MANY ROAD SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
THE AFFECT AREA APPEAR TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR ONE MORE WARM AND DRY. THEN A
COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
RIGGINS AND GRANGEVILLE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ALONG WITH
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.
FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE COOL, SHOWERY AND BREEZY BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG THE MONTANA/IDAHO BORDER,
ESPECIALLY OVER CLEARWATER COUNTY UP INTO NORTHWEST MONTANA. THIS
REGION SHOULD ANTICIPATED BETWEEN OF 0.30 TO 0.75" IN THE VALLEYS
AND UP TO 1.5" IN THE TERRAIN. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE DROPPING TO
AROUND 4000 FEET BY FRIDAY MORNING OVER NORTHWEST MONTANA, KEEPING
SNOW MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT THE BULK OF THE
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DIG
SOUTHWARD AND BECOMING A CUT-OFF LOW OVER CALIFORNIA BY SATURDAY
CAUSING WEAK RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AN APPROACHING
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE THIS CLOSED LOW TO LIFT OVER THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION OVER LEMHI COUNTY INTO
SOUTHWEST MONTANA.
NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO REMAIN ACTIVE, BUT THE MODELS DIVERGE ON
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES THAT WILL IMPACT
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
AVIATION
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS MORNING. THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE RAIN DUE TO SNOW LEVELS
HOVERING AROUND 8000 FEET. LINGERING VALLEY INVERSIONS REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS NORTHWEST MONTANA THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES
BELOW FREEZING. THESE LOCATIONS COULD EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN, INCLUDING KGPI. THE TRANSITION TO RAIN IS
ANTICIPATED TO BE FAIRLY QUICK. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO
REBUILD OVER THE REGION BY TONIGHT CAUSING A DRYING PERIOD, BUT
VALLEY INVERSIONS COULD ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ALLOWING FOR PATCHY FOG
AND LOW STRATUS TO FORM.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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