693
FXUS65 KMSO 131910
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
1210 PM MST THU NOV 13 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- ACTIVE BUT WARM WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- NEAR RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
MORNING.
- SNOW LEVELS DECREASING EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A CHANCE FOR MINIMAL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION IS BREAKING DOWN TODAY AND TOMORROW
CAUSING INCREASED WINDS AND SOME RAIN SHOWERS. SNOW LEVELS REMAIN
UNSEASONABLY HIGH UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WARM AIR MASS, SO ONLY
RAIN IS EXPECTED. THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER WILL HELP
TO INSULATE THE SURFACE, CAUSING MUCH WARMER NIGHTS THAN WE'VE
RECENTLY SEEN.
TODAY, MODEL FORECASTS FOR FRIDAY MORNING TRENDED WARMER AND ARE
NOW AT OR NEAR RECORD WARM DAILY LOWS. CURRENT FORECASTS HAVE
KALISPELL NEAR 40 DEGREES, WHICH WOULD TIE THE RECORD FROM 1940.
THE CURRENT FRIDAY LOW TEMPERATURE FOR MISSOULA 43 DEGREES, WHICH
WOULD BEAT THE 1981 RECORD OF 40 DEGREES. MANY LOCATIONS EAST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ARE ALSO LOOKING AT NEAR RECORDS INCLUDING
BILLINGS, GREAT FALLS, HAVRE, AND GLASGOW.
MONDAY THE SNOW LEVELS START TO LOWER CLOSER TO MORE TYPICAL
LEVELS FOR THE SEASON. BUT CUT-OFF LOW OFF THE WEST COAST WILL
DIVE FAR SOUTH OF THE REGION TAKING MOST OF THE MOISTURE WITH IT.
THAT WILL RESULT IN ONLY MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. OVERALL, THERE IS LITTLE AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS IN THE
LONG TERM OTHER THAN IT REMAINS ACTIVE PROBABLY THROUGH
THANKSGIVING.
AVIATION
MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WITH GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
(UP TO 25 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE) INCREASING THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY. SOUTHWESTERLY RIDGETOP WINDS WILL BE 40-50 KNOTS WITH
MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE LIKELY NEAR AND ALONG THE DIVIDE.
FREEZING LEVELS NEAR AND ABOVE 7,000 FT MSL WITH LOWERING CEILINGS AND
RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING FOR MOST TERMINALS AFTER 14/00Z AND
LASTING THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS AND
PERIODIC LOW VISIBILITIES AT THE SURFACE ARE LIKELY THROUGH
FRIDAY. FREEZING LEVELS LOWER TO NEAR 5,000FT MSL ABOVE KGPI AND
SURROUNDING AREAS AFTER 14/21Z.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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