552
FXUS65 KMSO 140823
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
123 AM MST FRI NOV 14 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- BREEZY TODAY: SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH EXPECTED IN
THE VALLEYS AND 40-50+ MPH POSSIBLE ALONG THE RIDGETOPS AND
NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE (ESPECIALLY THE GLACIER PARK
REGION).
- COOLER NEXT WEEK: A PATTERN CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL FINALLY
BRING IN COOLER AIR, LOWERING SNOW LEVELS. THIS WILL
REINTRODUCE A CHANCE FOR MOUNTAIN SNOW AND POSSIBLY A RAIN/SNOW
MIX IN THE VALLEYS.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT HAVE REMAINED QUITE WARM, WITH MOST OF THE
VALLEYS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID-50S AT 1:00 AM MST. THESE
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE ACTUALLY WARMER THAN THE EXPECTED AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES. THIS IS DUE TO SHOWERS AND COOLER AIR ARRIVING
WITH TODAY'S COLD FRONT. WITH SNOW LEVELS REMAINING HIGH (ABOVE
7,000 FEET), THIS WILL BE A RAIN EVENT FOR ALL BUT THE HIGHEST
MOUNTAIN PEAKS.
THE PRIMARY HAZARD TODAY WILL BE WIND. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
ALONG THE RIDGETOPS AND THROUGH WIND-PRONE AREAS (LIKE THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF GLACIER NATIONAL PARK) COULD GUST OVER 50 MPH. MOST OF
THE VALLEY GUSTS ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE,
EXCEPT FOR THE BUTTE/BLACKFOOT REGION WHERE GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED.
LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK, THE STORMY PATTERN CONTINUES. WHILE
THE EXACT TIMING IS UNCERTAIN, FORECAST MODELS SHOW A GENERAL
TREND TOWARD A COOLER, MORE SEASONAL PATTERN. A "PARADE" OF WEAKER
SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH, AND AS THEY DO, THEY WILL DRAW IN
COOLER AIR, GRADUALLY LOWERING SNOW LEVELS. THIS WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER MOUNTAIN PASSES AND
REINTRODUCE THE POSSIBILITY OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX ON VALLEY FLOORS BY
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
SHOWERY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
RIDGETOP WINDS OF 40-50 KNOTS WILL CREATE A SIGNIFICANT RISK FOR
STRONG, ROTATING TURBULENCE (MOUNTAIN WAVES), ESPECIALLY NEAR AND
EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
FREEZING LEVELS ARE UNSEASONABLY HIGH, REMAINING NEAR OR ABOVE
7,000 FEET (MEAN SEA LEVEL) THROUGH MOST OF TODAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN RAIN SHOWERS AT ALL AIRPORTS, LEADING TO LOWERED
CEILINGS AND PERIODIC LOWERED VISIBILITY. MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY
BE OBSCURED BY CLOUDS. FREEZING LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER
SLIGHTLY OVER THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON, DROPPING TO
AROUND 5,000 FEET. BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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