683
FXUS65 KMSO 282113
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
213 PM MST FRI NOV 28 2025
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- LOW CONFIDENCE, BUT NORTH TO SOUTH SNOW BANDS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY AROUND MISSOULA.
- POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ON THE SOUTHERN END OF FLATHEAD LAKE
TONIGHT.
- THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON SO FAR EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND
AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL CAUSE SOME MINOR
IMPACTS TO TRAVEL.
- OVERALL, THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH THE
WEEK.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE TO INFILTRATE THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT CAUSING SOME
OF THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES EXPERIENCED THIS WINTER SEASON,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE AREAS THAT RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT SNOW IN THE
PAST 24 HOURS. A CONCERN THIS EVENING IS THAT ANY WET AND/OR
SLUSHY ROADS COULD BECOME ICY AFTER SUNSET PARTICULARLY ACROSS
WESTERN MONTANA.
WHILE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DECREASE OVERNIGHT IN MOST AREAS,
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS FLATHEAD LAKE AND A
FEW CHANNELED AREAS AND CANYONS MAY KEEP A EASTERLY WIND
GOING(THEREBY KEEPING WIND CHILLS COLDER). THE COLD AIR FLOWING
OVER THE WARM OPEN WATERS HAS THE POTENTIAL OF CREATING LAKE
EFFECT SNOW FROM THE NARROWS SOUTHWARD TO POLSON LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IS ANTICIPATED TO SWING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO NORTH
CENTRAL IDAHO INTO PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL MONTANA WITH
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 2 INCHES OVER PARTS OF IDAHO COUNTY.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOW
LEVELS SHOULD STILL BE NEAR VALLEY FLOORS FOR THE FAR MAJORITY OF
THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME ALLOWING LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS EVEN IN THE LOWER VALLEYS OF IDAHO/CLEARWATER
COUNTIES. MINOR TO MODERATE IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE.
THIS ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED TO THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY HAVE BEEN IMPROVING SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE REGION
ONCE THE BACK END OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD MOVES OVER A
TERMINAL. KBTM, KHRF AND KSMN WILL CONTINUE TO DEAL WITH CEILING
AND VISIBILITY ISSUES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL BE EXPERIENCED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AS ARCTIC AIR INFILTRATES THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE WINDS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO LESSEN DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
BITTERROOT/SAPPHIRE MOUNTAINS...FLATHEAD/MISSION VALLEYS...
LOWER CLARK FORK REGION...MISSOULA/BITTERROOT VALLEYS.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
BUTTE/BLACKFOOT REGION...POTOMAC/SEELEY LAKE REGION.
ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
SOUTHERN CLEARWATER MOUNTAINS.
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