295
FNUS75 KMSO 140046
FWSMSO
SPOT FORECAST FOR 2025 LINCOLN COUNTY FLOOD INCIDENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
546 PM MST SAT DEC 13 2025
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0800 MST ON DECEMBER 14.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
THE NEXT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL BEGIN
MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
IMPACTS THE REGION. PEAK PRECIPITATION RATES WILL OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BEFORE DECREASING OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH DURING PEAK PRECIPITATION, NEAR
7,000 FEET MONDAY AFTERNOON, BEFORE DROPPING NEAR 5,000 FEET BY
TUESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT PASSES.
DURING THE FIRST 24-HOURS OF THIS EVENT ENDING TUESDAY MORNING,
LOW-END (90% CHANCE OF AT LEAST THIS PRECIPITATION) AND HIGH-END
PRECIPITATION (10% CHANCE OF AT LEAST THIS PRECIPITATION) TOTALS
FOR THIS EVENT ARE THE FOLLOWING:
VALLEYS, INCLUDING LIBBY AND TROY: 0.30-1.20 INCHES
MOUNTAINS: 0.75-1.75 INCHES.
ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM ARRIVES TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY
AS ANOTHER ATMOSPHERIC RIVER ARRIVES. PRECIPITATION RATES WILL
PEAK TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS DURING PEAK
PRECIPITATION WILL BE NEAR 4,500-5,000 FEET. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM, WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING RAPIDLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING NEAR VALLEY FLOORS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING
THE RISK FOR STRONG TO POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS, WITH LOW-END
WIND GUSTS OF 35 MPH AND HIGH-END WIND GUSTS OF 55 MPH.
DURING THE FOLLOWING 24-HOURS OF THIS EVENT ENDING WEDNESDAY
MORNING, LOW-END AND HIGH-END PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE THE
FOLLOWING:
VALLEYS, INCLUDING LIBBY AND TROY: 0.50-1.50 INCHES
MOUNTAINS: 1.50-3.00 INCHES.
SUNDAY
* SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG LATE IN THE
MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
* CHANCE OF PRECIP....20 PERCENT.
* CHANCE LIGHTNING....0 PERCENT.
* MAX TEMPERATURE.....46-51.
* MIN HUMIDITY........73-78 PERCENT.
* WIND (20 FT)........VARIABLE 1-3 MPH.
* PRECIP AMOUNT.......0.00 INCHES.
TIME (MST) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........53 45 42 57 72 64 64 77 68 76
WEATHER COV..... PTY PTY SCH SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE.... FOG FOG RN RN RN RN
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 10 20 20 20 20 10
CHC OF LTNG (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............33 33 35 37 41 43 45 47 45 43
RH..............89 93 93 88 83 79 78 77 81 85
SURFACE WND DIR.SE SE E NE E E S SE SE S
SURFACE WND SPD.1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
SURFACE WND GST.5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
SUNDAY NIGHT
* SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG. CHANCE OF RAIN
LATE IN THE EVENING. RAIN LIKELY EARLY IN THE MORNING.
* CHANCE OF PRECIP....70 PERCENT.
* CHANCE LIGHTNING....0 PERCENT.
* MIN TEMPERATURE.....34-39.
* MAX HUMIDITY........95-100 PERCENT.
* WIND (20 FT)........VARIABLE 1-3 MPH.
* PRECIP AMOUNT.......0.01 INCHES.
TIME (MST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........76 76 66 66 66 77 77 77 58 58 58 82
WEATHER COV..... PTY PTY PTY PTY CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY
WEATHER TYPE.... FOG FOG FOG FOG RN RN RN RN RN RN RN
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 10 30 30 30 30 30 30 70
CHC OF LTNG (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............41 39 38 37 37 37 37 37 36 36 36 37
RH..............88 93 91 95 96 96 97 99 100 99 97 96
SURFACE WND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S S SE
SURFACE WND SPD.1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
SURFACE WND GST.5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
MONDAY
* SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG. RAIN LIKELY IN THE
MORNING. RAIN LATE IN THE MORNING.
* CHANCE OF PRECIP....90 PERCENT.
* CHANCE LIGHTNING....0 PERCENT.
* MAX TEMPERATURE.....47-52.
* MIN HUMIDITY........89-94 PERCENT.
* WIND (20 FT)........VARIABLE 1-3 MPH.
* PRECIP AMOUNT.......0.15 INCHES.
TIME (MST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........82 82 85 85 85 96 96 96 96 96 96 95
WEATHER COV.....LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
WEATHER TYPE....RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).70 70 70 70 70 90 90 90 90 90 90 90
CHC OF LTNG (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............37 37 38 38 39 40 42 43 45 46 47 47
RH..............96 96 96 97 98 99 98 96 94 93 93 93
SURFACE WND DIR.SE SE S S S S S S SW SW SW S
SURFACE WND SPD.1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 3
SURFACE WND GST.5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 10 10 10 5
FORECASTER...LUKINBEAL
REQUESTED BY...VICKI STEPHENS
TYPE OF REQUEST...OTHER
.TAG 2527597.0/MSO
.DELDT 12/13/25
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL VICKI.STEPHENS@MT.GOV
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