591
FNUS75 KMSO 150043
FWSMSO
SPOT FORECAST FOR 2025 LINCOLN COUNTY FLOOD INCIDENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
543 PM MST SUN DEC 14 2025
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0800 MST ON DECEMBER 15.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
DISCUSSION
THE NEXT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT IS STILL ON
TRACK TO BEGIN MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER IMPACTS THE REGION. PEAK PRECIPITATION RATES
WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BEFORE DECREASING
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE HIGH DURING
PEAK PRECIPITATION, NEAR 8,000 FEET MONDAY AFTERNOON, BEFORE
DROPPING NEAR 4,000 FEET BY TUESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT
PASSES. AN ADDITIONAL CONCERN THAT HAS AROSE IS GUSTY WINDS ON
MONDAY EVENING. MEAN WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH ARE FORECAST FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS BUT FOR LOCATIONS JUST ABOVE VALLEY FLOORS GUSTS
OF 30-40 MPH MAY OCCUR OVER A FEW HOURS CENTERED AROUND 9-10PM.
DURING THE FIRST 24-HOURS OF THIS EVENT ENDING TUESDAY MORNING,
LOW-END (90% CHANCE OF AT LEAST THIS PRECIPITATION) AND HIGH-END
PRECIPITATION (10% CHANCE OF AT LEAST THIS PRECIPITATION) TOTALS
FOR THIS EVENT ARE THE FOLLOWING:
VALLEYS, INCLUDING LIBBY AND TROY: 0.20-1.10 INCHES
MOUNTAINS: 0.6-1.6 INCHES.
ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM ARRIVES TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY
AS ANOTHER ATMOSPHERIC RIVER ARRIVES. PRECIPITATION RATES WILL
PEAK TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOW LEVELS DURING PEAK
PRECIPITATION WILL BE NEAR 4,500-5,000 FEET. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM, WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING RAPIDLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING NEAR VALLEY FLOORS. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING
THE RISK FOR STRONG TO POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS, WITH LOW-END
WIND GUSTS OF 35 MPH AND HIGH-END WIND GUSTS OF 65 MPH.
DURING THE FOLLOWING 24-HOURS OF THIS EVENT ENDING WEDNESDAY
MORNING, LOW-END AND HIGH-END PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE THE
FOLLOWING:
VALLEYS, INCLUDING LIBBY AND TROY: 0.50-1.50 INCHES
MOUNTAINS: 1.50-3.00 INCHES.
MONDAY
* SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG EARLY IN THE
MORNING. RAIN.
* CHANCE OF PRECIP....100 PERCENT.
* CHANCE LIGHTNING....0 PERCENT.
* MAX TEMPERATURE.....47-52.
* MIN HUMIDITY........87-92 PERCENT.
* WIND (20 FT)........VARIABLE 1-3 MPH.
* PRECIP AMOUNT.......0.18 INCHES.
TIME (MST) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........89 88 88 94 97 91 80 78 65 92
WEATHER COV.....LKY DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF LKY LKY CHC DEF
WEATHER TYPE....RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).70 80 80 90 100 90 70 60 50 90
CHC OF LTNG (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............37 36 38 39 41 44 45 46 47 46
RH..............94 100 100 100 100 98 96 93 93 93
SURFACE WND DIR.SE E NE E W E E E SE S
SURFACE WND SPD.1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3
SURFACE WND GST.5 5 5 5 10 10 10 10 15 5
MONDAY NIGHT
* SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. RAIN IN THE EVENING, THEN
CHANCE OF RAIN LATE IN THE EVENING. RAIN LIKELY EARLY IN THE
MORNING.
* CHANCE OF PRECIP....90 PERCENT.
* CHANCE LIGHTNING....UP TO 10 PERCENT.
* MIN TEMPERATURE.....33-38.
* MAX HUMIDITY........88-93 PERCENT.
* WIND (20 FT)........VARIABLE 3-7 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST 7-14
MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH.
* PRECIP AMOUNT.......0.12 INCHES.
TIME (MST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........92 92 92 92 92 66 66 66 66 66 66 78
WEATHER COV.....DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY
WEATHER TYPE....RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).90 90 90 90 90 50 50 50 50 50 50 70
CHC OF LTNG (%).0 0 10 10 10 10 10 10 0 0 0 0
TEMP............46 46 44 44 44 42 41 40 39 38 38 37
RH..............95 95 98 97 95 93 91 89 88 88 89 90
SURFACE WND DIR.S S S S S SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
SURFACE WND SPD.3 3 7 14 14 12 10 8 8 8 8 7
SURFACE WND GST.5 5 15 25 25 22 20 15 15 10 10 10
TUESDAY
* SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY. RAIN LIKELY IN THE MORNING,
THEN RAIN LATE IN THE MORNING.
* CHANCE OF PRECIP....90 PERCENT.
* CHANCE LIGHTNING....0 PERCENT.
* MAX TEMPERATURE.....43-48.
* MIN HUMIDITY........83-88 PERCENT.
* WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST 6-7 MPH GUSTS TO 20 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON.
* PRECIP AMOUNT.......0.08 INCHES.
TIME (MST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........78 78 78 78 78 94 94 94 94 94 94 95
WEATHER COV.....LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
WEATHER TYPE....RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).70 70 70 70 70 90 90 90 90 90 90 90
CHC OF LTNG (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............37 37 37 37 38 39 41 43 44 44 43 42
RH..............90 91 91 92 93 93 92 90 88 87 88 89
SURFACE WND DIR.SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
SURFACE WND SPD.7 7 6 6 6 6 10 10 10 8 6 7
SURFACE WND GST.10 10 10 10 10 10 15 20 20 15 10 10
FORECASTER...BOOTH
REQUESTED BY...VICKI STEPHENS
TYPE OF REQUEST...OTHER
.TAG 2527597.1/MSO
.DELDT 12/14/25
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL VICKI.STEPHENS@MT.GOV
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