972
FXUS65 KMSO 242011
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
111 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS
ALONG THE DIVIDE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
- LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE DIVIDE AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.
- DRY, STAGNANT PATTERN MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL REMAIN A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL TONIGHT AND ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE AREA OF ARCTIC AIR EAST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE MOVES EAST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG THE DIVIDE TODAY, BRINGING SNOW ALONG AND
JUST WEST OF THE DIVIDE IN NORTHWEST MONTANA. WEBCAMS THIS
AFTERNOON SHOW IT SNOWING IN WEST GLACIER. CHANCES REMAIN GOOD
(ABOUT 60%) FOR SNOW TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE LIGHT SIDE THOUGH, AS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS
SHOW ABOUT A 20% CHANCE OF ONE INCH OF SNOW BY SUNDAY MORNING
ALONG US HIGHWAY 2 FROM ESSEX EAST THROUGH MARIAS PASS. OTHER
ROADWAYS WITH SNOW IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT INCLUDE HOMESTAKE,
ROGERS, AND MACDONALD PASSES, I-90 DRUMMOND TO BUTTE, AND MT
HIGHWAY 200 IN THE BLACKFOOT VALLEY.
A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WEST
COAST ON SUNDAY. THE RIDGE MOVES INLAND, BECOMING CENTERED OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON TUESDAY EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING
DRY, STABLE CONDITIONS THAT RESIDENTS OF THE AREA HAVE BECOME
ACCUSTOMED TO THIS JANUARY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO KEEP VALLEY FOG/LOW STRATUS AT BAY
UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A CHUNK OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET REMAINS
OVERHEAD. AGREEMENT IN MODEL ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS BEGINS TO DIVERGE
LATER IN THE WEEK, WITH SOME HOLDING ONTO A STRONG RIDGE, WHILE
OTHERS DEPICT A TRANSITION TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE LATTER
SOLUTION WOULD BRING SOME WEAK SHORTWAVES AND ENHANCE CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION, WHILE THE FORMER WOULD RESULT IN ... WELL...
YOU KNOW... WARM, DRY, AND STABLE WITH VALLEY FOG AND LOW
STRATUS.
AVIATION
GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS WIDESPREAD
STRATUS CLOUDS ENTRENCHED ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO AND WESTERN
MONTANA. LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN OBSERVED ALONG THE DIVIDE AS PULSES
OF MOISTURE CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING, WITH LIGHT SNOW BECOMING
WIDESPREAD ALONG THE DIVIDE AND IN SOUTHWEST MONTANA. MEDIUM-
HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR SNOW TO IMPACT KBTM OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. THE TIMING OF SNOW STARTING AT KBTM REMAINS THE
MAIN CHALLENGE, WITH THE CURRENT TAF TAKING A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
APPROACH WITH 4SM LIGHT SNOW STARTING BY 25/0200Z. VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS CAN ALSO NOT BE RULED OUT AT KMSO, WITH A 20% CHANCE OF
5SM OR LOWER VISIBILITY FROM 25/0600-1200Z. LIGHT SNOW WILL
GENERALLY BEGIN TO EXIT SOUTHWEST MONTANA AFTER 25/1200Z SUNDAY AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE DIVIDE.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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