478
FXUS65 KMSO 261112
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
412 AM MST MON JAN 26 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- POCKETS OF LIGHT VALLEY FREEZING RAIN/PASS LEVEL SNOW LATER
THIS WEEK.
- FEBRUARY IS GOING TO COME IN LIKE A VERY MILD LAMB.
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING RANGE FROM ONE BELOW AT THE BERT MOONEY
AIRPORT IN BUTTE TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AND TEENS IN
WESTERN MONTANA, TO THE 20S IN THE LOWER VALLEYS OF NORTH-CENTRAL
IDAHO. NIGHT-TIME SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FEW AREAS WHERE FOG
AND/OR LOW CLOUDS ARE TRYING TO FORM OVER LAKE KOOCANUSA,
MACDONALD LAKE, HUNGRY HORSE RESERVOIR AND OVER THE SOUTHERN PART
OF FLATHEAD LAKE.
IT FEELS A LITTLE STRANGE TO SAY THIS CONSIDERING OUR MILD WINTER
SO FAR, BUT HIGHS TODAY WILL RUN NEAR AVERAGE FOR LATE
JANUARY. THE AVERAGE HIGH FOR BOTH MISSOULA AND BUTTE IS 33
DEGREES, AND 32 DEGREES IN KALISPELL. FOR OROFINO, IDAHO, AVERAGE
HIGHS ARE AT 42 DEGREES (YESTERDAY THEY WARMED UP TO 38 DEGREES
FAHRENHEIT).
AFTER A CHILLY START TUESDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT
OVER THE REGION PROVIDING SUNSHINE TO START WITH HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING IN LATER IN THE DAY. THERE MAY BE A LITTLE BIT MORE LOW
CLOUD COVERAGE OR PATCHY FOG IN PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MONTANA.
ON WEDNESDAY, THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES INCREASINGLY
"DIRTY" AND WEAKER, WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT
COULD BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS, SNOW LEVELS
GRADUALLY RISING TO AROUND 4000 FEET.
MORE WAVES OF MOISTURE WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
WITH THE RECENT COLD SPELL, GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUB-
FREEZING. THIS COULD SET THE STAGE FOR FREEZING RAIN OR WINTRY
MIX. BLACK ICE WOULD BE THE BIGGEST IMPACT, ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT.
WITH THE FLOW HAVING MORE WESTERLY WIND, MANY LOCATIONS COULD MIX
OUT AND WARM UP WELL INTO THE 30S AND 40S, POSSIBLY HITTING 50
DEGREES OR HIGHER IN A FEW SPOTS! DOES THIS REMIND YOU A BIT OF
OUR WINTER?
FEBRUARY'S OPENING ACT FEATURES 40S AND 50S, EXTENDING
A WINTER THAT HAS LEANED FAR MORE PACIFIC THAN ARCTIC. THIS IS
LITERALLY WHAT THE ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING...DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC!
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY UNDER STEADY NORTHWEST FLOW. THE PRIMARY
EXCEPTION REMAINS NORTHWEST MONTANA, WHERE A FEW SPOTS MAY HAVE
PATCHY FOG OR LOW CLOUDS BY A FEW LAKES.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page