067
FXUS65 KMSO 261914
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
1214 PM MST MON JAN 26 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL WEDNESDAY.
- POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN VALLEYS AND SNOW AT PASS
LEVEL ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK.
- FEBRUARY WILL BEGIN WITH VERY MILD TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING RANGED FROM JUST BELOW ZERO TO THE LOW
TEENS IN WESTERN MONTANA, AND INTO THE UPPER TEENS IN THE LOWER
VALLEYS OF NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED POCKETS
OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHWEST MONTANA, PARTICULARLY ALONG
FLATHEAD LAKE. THIS FOG WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT THIS AFTERNOON AS
MID-TO-HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST. THESE CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVERNIGHT, WHICH WILL LIMIT FOG REDEVELOPING
AND KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM DROPPING AS COLD AS THIS MORNING.
DESPITE THE DRY WEATHER, AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ON WEDNESDAY, THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN, ALLOWING A
WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE TO MOVE SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL TO MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. WHILE ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN LIMITED,
ISOLATED SLICK SPOTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE WEDNESDAY MORNING
COMMUTE. MOUNTAIN PASSES ALONG THE MONTANA/IDAHO BORDER, AS WELL
AS MARIAS PASS, ARE EXPECTED TO SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW BY THE
END OF THE DAY, WITH A TRACE TO HALF AN INCH IN THE VALLEYS OF
WESTERN MONTANA. TEMPERATURES IN NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO WILL BE WARM
ENOUGH TO LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATION BELOW 4,000 FEET.
ADDITIONAL WAVES OF MOISTURE WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. FORECAST MODELS ARE SPLIT, WITH 50 PERCENT SHOWING A
TRACE TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHWEST
MONTANA AND NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO, WHILE THE OTHER HALF SUGGESTS
DRIER CONDITIONS. GIVEN THE RECENT COLD SPELL, GROUND TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN FROZEN EVEN IF AIR TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING.
THIS COULD CREATE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR A WINTRY
MIX. BLACK ICE WOULD BE THE PRIMARY IMPACT, ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT.
AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST LATER IN THE WEEK, MANY LOCATIONS COULD
BREAK THE INVERSION AND WARM WELL INTO THE 30S AND 40S, POSSIBLY
HITTING 50 DEGREES IN A FEW SPOTS.
FEBRUARY’S OPENING ACT FEATURES TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S,
CONTINUING A WINTER THAT HAS LEANED FAR MORE PACIFIC THAN ARCTIC.
MODELS INDICATE A STRONG WARMING TREND WITH PACIFIC AIR FLOWING
INTO THE REGION.
AVIATION
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY. MORNING
FOG AND LOW STRATUS HAVE IMPROVED, AND PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER
OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED TO PREVENT FOG FROM RETURNING. THIS CLOUD
COVER WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING AS LOW AS PREVIOUS
MORNINGS. ANOTHER DRY DAY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOWFALL RETURNING TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY.
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT, WITH LESS THAN HALF AN
INCH IN THE VALLEYS.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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