055
FXUS65 KMSO 271122
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
422 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- LIGHT SNOWFALL WEDNESDAY.
- POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN VALLEYS AND SNOW AT PASS
LEVEL ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK.
- FEBRUARY WILL BEGIN WITH VERY MILD TEMPERATURES.
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TODAY. ON WEDNESDAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS ORIENTATION OF THIS WAVE HAS CHANGED
JUST SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS. IT WILL HAVE A
LITTLE BIT MORE FORCING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO,
MEANING THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD THERE. THE
THICKNESSES ARE FAIRLY COLD, WHICH COULD POINT TO MOSTLY SNOW.
THE MORNING COMMUTE ACROSS NORTH- CENTRAL IDAHO COULD EXPERIENCE A
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW, WITH ROADS COVERED FOR A PERIOD. THE
PROBABILITIES ARE HIGHER, 60+ PERCENT FOR 1 INCH OR HIGHER IN THE
CLEARWATER MOUNTAINS AND LOOKOUT PASS.
ADDITIONAL WAVES OF MOISTURE WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. OUR REGION WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
IMPACTING THE CASCADES ON THURSDAY. THINK THAT WITH THE
ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST, THAT SNOW LEVELS MAY
BE SLUGGISH TO RISE MUCH. IT'S NOT UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN THE
ABOVE FREEZING AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN ALOFT. GIVEN THE RECENT COLD
SPELL, GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FROZEN EVEN IF AIR
TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. THIS COULD CREATE POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR A WINTRY MIX THURSDAY NIGHT. THE INCREASED
WIND GRADIENT ON FRIDAY IN THE POST-WARM FRONT ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
BE ABLE TO MIX OUT IN A LOT OF LOCATIONS, CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO
RISE INTO THE 30S AND 40S. SHOWERS WILL BE DECREASING ON SATURDAY
AND MANY VALLEYS WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR!
SUNDAY (FEBRUARY 1ST), WILL BE CONTINUED MILD WITH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 40S AND 50S. HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN OVERHEAD WITH THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO BRING A COLD FRONT PASSAGE AND POSSIBLE
PASS-LEVEL SNOW(40-50%) BY MONDAY.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WITH DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY. A
WAVE WILL BRING LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO
GENERALLY AFTER 1200Z/0400PST WEDNESDAY, THEN TRANSITION TO
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS BY THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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