164
FXUS65 KMSO 272039
AFDMSO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
139 PM MST TUE JAN 27 2026
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES:
- LIGHT SNOWFALL WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL
IDAHO.
- POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN VALLEYS AND SNOW AT PASS LEVEL
ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNINGS.
- MILD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF FEBRUARY.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO WILL
BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM.
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD FIRST INTO NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO WEDNESDAY
MORNING, THEN INTO WESTERN MONTANA BY AFTERNOON. ENOUGH FORCING
WITH THIS SYSTEM EXISTS TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
THROUGH PRIMARILY NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO DOWN TO ROUGHLY 2500 FEET,
IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE HIGHWAY 12 CORRIDOR. THERE IS A 60 TO 80
PERCENT CHANCE OF SEEING AT LEAST AN INCH OF SNOW FOR LOCATIONS
SUCH AS LOLO PASS, LOOKOUT PASS AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN, HOWEVER
LOWER ELEVATIONS MOST LIKELY WILL SEE HALF OF AN INCH OR LESS.
THOUGH GENERALLY LIGHT, SLICK SPOTS ARE A POSSIBILITY DURING THE
MORNING COMMUTE.
ALTHOUGH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, ADDITIONAL WAVES OF MOISTURE ARE
ANTICIPATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE RIDGE, BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS
TO NORTHWEST MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO IN PARTICULAR. SNOW
LEVELS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO RISE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AS THIS OCCURS A PERIOD OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION (INCLUDING LIGHT FREEZING RAIN) WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
VALLEYS. THIS OVERALL LOOKS LIKE A LIGHT EVENT, BUT IT ONLY TAKES
A TINY BIT OF ICE TO MAKE THINGS SLICK, ESPECIALLY OVER
BRIDGES/OVERPASSES. SHOWERS WILL BE DECREASING ON SATURDAY AND
MANY VALLEYS WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR!
HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE WESTERN US
FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, WHICH IS WELL REPRESENTED BY VIRTUALLY ALL
ENSEMBLE MODEL SOLUTIONS THROUGH AT LEAST DAY 9 (FEB 5TH). MILD
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED, THOUGH VALLEY INVERSIONS MAY
STRENGTHEN WITH THE RIDGE IN THE LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST MODELS DO SHOW A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE
RIDGE ON MONDAY, WHICH WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND BRING
SOME LIGHT SNOW TO MOUNTAIN PASSES.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WITH DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT. DESPITE A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE, INCREASING CLOD
COVER AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS IN THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD
KEEP FOG FORMATION AT BAY. A WEAK WAVE WILL BRING LIGHT SNOWFALL
ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO GENERALLY AFTER 28/1200Z, THEN
TRANSITION TO MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS BY THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION. INCREASING WINDS NEAR RIDGE TOP LEVELS TO
AROUND 35KTS MAY LEAD TO SOME INCREASED MECHANICAL TURBULENCE,
PARTICULARLY AFTER 28/1800Z.
MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
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